War-Related Risks Test Rating Resilience Across Sectors in Middle East in World Economy News 04/06/2026 The Iran war and effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz have disrupted economic activity, but negative rating actions for Middle East issuers in March-April were limited to Outlook revisions and placements on Rating Watch, Fitch Ratings says in a new report. The Middle East has been subject to heightened uncertainty and disruption since end-February, due largely to the Iran war. There have been no Middle East issuer downgrades since end-February, but Fitch has placed several ratings on Rating Watch Negative and revised some Outlooks to Negative from Stable, or to Stable from Positive. These actions point to the persistence of significant risks around the war that, if crystallised, could lead to broader rating downgrades. The effective closure of Hormuz has led to supply chain disruptions. These have been exacerbated by damage to Qatar’s LNG infrastructure and volatile funding conditions in the region. Fitch recently revised its 2026 base-case Brent oil price assumption to USD87/barrel. This is now based on an assumption that the strait will begin reopening around July, extending the closure to about five months, from one to two months expected previously. Oil prices average about USD100/barrel in 2026 under Fitch’s adverse scenario, with Hormuz not returning to near normal flows until later in 3Q26 or possibly early 4Q26. The scenario highlighted material risks to several sectors in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), including airlines, hotels, chemicals and homebuilders. The ability of hydrocarbon producers to increase revenue and margins due to higher prices is conditional on their independence from Hormuz. The ratings of 85% of GCC banks and of many corporate government-related entities in the region rely on sovereign support. These ratings are therefore likely to move in tandem with the Issuer Default Ratings of the relevant sovereigns. ‘Middle East: Iran