BofA now expects oil prices to trade around $100/bbl for the rest of the year in Oil & Companies News 02/04/2026 Bank of America now expects oil prices to hover around $100 per barrel for the remainder of 2026 after revising its global economic forecasts as the Iran war continues to disrupt energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz. In its base case, the bank assumes the war ends before the end of April, factoring in a supply deficit of 4 million barrels per day (bpd) in the second quarter, followed by an average shortfall of 2.5 million bpd in the second half of the year. “In this new base case, Brent would average $92.50/bbl in 2026, with oil prices around $100/bbl for the rest of the year and converging lower below $70/bbl by end-2027,” economists led by Claudio Irigoyen said in a note. The team said the conflict is not an oil shock but rather “an energy shock,” noting that elevated natural gas and fertilizer prices compound the inflationary pressure, particularly for Europe and developing economies. BofA cut its global growth forecast by 40 basis points to 3.1% for 2026, while raising its global inflation forecast by 90 basis points to 3.3%. The Euro area bears the heaviest burden, with growth marked down to just 0.6% this year and inflation revised up by 160 basis points to 3.3%. The U.S. faces a more moderate hit, with growth revised down 50 basis points to 2.3% and headline PCE inflation expected to peak near 3.8% in the second quarter. China, conversely, is expected to weather the shock through policy support and export resilience, maintaining 4.5% growth, marking “a mild 20bp downward revision.” On the monetary policy front, the implications are also significant. BofA now expects the European Central Bank to hike rates by 25 basis points in both June and July, taking the deposit rate to 2.50%, before beginning a cutting cycle in 2027. The Bank of England is expected to follow a similar path with two hikes of the same size over the same months. Elsewhere, the Federal Reserve is seen delaying its rate cuts from June-July to September-October, with BofA acknowledging “high risks that these cuts may not materialize.” “The current shock undoubtedly makes rate cuts less likely in the short term, but we think they may materialize later in the year,” the economists wrote. In its escalation scenario, where oil averages $130 per barrel for 2026 with a peak above $150, BofA warns of significantly worse outcomes. Under that path, the team says “the non-linear consequences of much higher energy prices, coupled with a significant correction in asset prices, could lead the global economy into a recessionary scenario.” Economists stressed, however, that they view this outcome as unlikely under current conditions, while noting that tail risks remain fatter than markets are currently pricing. Source: Investing.com 2026-04-02 hellenicshippingnews... window.___gcfg = {lang: 'en-US'}; (function(w, d, s) { function go(){ var js, fjs = d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0], load = function(url, id) { if (d.getElementById(id)) {return;} js = d.createElement(s); js.src = url; js.id = id; fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js, fjs); }; load('//connect.facebook.net/en/all.js#xfbml=1', 'fbjssdk'); load('https://apis.google.com/js/plusone.js', 'gplus1js'); load('//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js', 'tweetjs'); } if (w.addEventListener) { w.addEventListener("load", go, false); } else if (w.attachEvent) { w.attachEvent("onload",go); } }(window, document, 'script')); tweet Sh