New UCL and RMI study emphasises the critical role of GHG pricing in shipping’s energy transition in International Shipping News,Shipping: Emission Possible 09/04/2026 A landmark study from the UCL Shipping and Oceans Research Group and RMI has found that the inclusion of GHG pricing in the International Maritime Organization’s (IMO’s) policy framework will be critical in the shipping industry achieving a cost-effective energy transition. The analysis shows that there are multiple benefits from GHG pricing, including a less volatile and more investable fuel market, improving the availability of compliant solutions, protecting countries from risks of policy-driven economic shocks, enabling early adoption of low-emissions fuels, and creating the revenue streams crucial for contributing to a just and equitable transition. The results are publishing just as the IMO is about to reconvene at the 84th session of the Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC 84) to consider how to move forward policy ambitions after the decision to adopt the Net Zero Framework (NZF), a global policy framework for the shipping sector, was postponed in October 2025. The in-depth research shows that alternative policy architecture proposals removing GHG pricing and focusing on a technical-only solution will have negative impacts on the sector’s transition. The findings come from a new fleet evolution modelling (FEM) framework from the UCL Shipping and Oceans Research Group and RMI — the first of its kind to explicitly model several shipowner behaviours, including ‘peer influence’ on how they perceive different fuel options. The modelling was used to evaluate both the NZF, approved in principle at MEPC 83 last year, along with other policy architectures that have been proposed as a way forwards in the event the negotiations on architecture are reopened. The results reveal critical differences in the ability to invest in the transition for early adopters and fuel producers based on policy choices. Dr Marie Fricaudet, Senior Research Fellow at UCL Shipping and Oceans Research Group said: “This research fills a critical gap in the evidence base. By modelling how mass market shipowners actually make decisions — cautiously, with limited foresight, and with one eye on their competitors — we get a fundamentally different picture of what different policy architectures and GHG pricing will deliver.” What the fleet evolution model reveals for policy design Applied to five foreseeable IMO policy architectures, the model produces findings that differ meaningfully from existing approaches: • Regional policy alone cannot drive global fleet transition. A ‘no IMO, EU only’ scenario shows no evidence of driving energy transition in the global fleet. Most vessels have limited exposure to EU regulation, so those policies alone don’t change investment decisions — reinforcing the imperative for a robust global IMO measure. • The transition will start slowly — then accelerate quickly. Most shipowners will wait until a critical mass adopts new fuels. However, once that tipping point is reached, including peer effects can drive rapid, self-reinforcing shifts that can put pressure on fuel supply chains. Policymakers should plan for both the slow-start to transition and the acceleration. • Policy design determines investability. Only architectures combining a GHG price, a capped SU market, and a reward mechanism for zero- and near-zero (ZNZ) fuels create the conditions for an investable