Hormuz Reopening Could Trigger OPEC’s Next Big Challenge Maritime Activity Reports, Inc. Ron Bousso June 11, 2026 © dnazirhossain / Adobe Stock Saudi Arabia and neighbouring Gulf producers will cheer the eventual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, but the ensuing flood of oil risks eroding OPEC’s already fragile grip on the market. The Iran war and the closure of the vital waterway – through which nearly a fifth of the world’s oil and gas flowed before the conflict – have sharply diminished output from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and moved the industry’s centre of gravity away from the Middle East. Riyadh’s options for countering these changes are limited. It remains far from clear when the strait will reopen or what conditions will look like when it does. While U.S. President Donald Trump insists that traffic through the waterway should return to its pre-war norm, Iran is determined to retain some measure of control, suggesting any recovery will be cautious, contested and bumpy. Yet amid the uncertainty, one outcome looks almost inevitable: Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Iraq and Iran will all seek to maximise oil exports to plug the vast fiscal holes created by the conflict. The loss of roughly 13 million barrels per day of Middle East exports - around 13% of global supply - since the start of the war on February 28 represents more than $80 billion in lost revenue, according to ROI calculations. Damage to energy infrastructure, including refineries, storage facilities, tankers and liquefied natural gas plants, runs into the tens of billions of dollars. The incentives to move quickly will be huge given pent-up demand from major energy importers, particularly in Asia. Asian governments and refineries have sharply curtailed consumption during the conflict and drawn down inventories. Many will likely be eager to rebuild stockpiles. Supply and demand are unlikely to recover in sync, however. For starters, it co