U.S. macro risks ’likely limited unless pronounced oil spike’: BofA in World Economy News 07/03/2026 The conflict between the U.S. and Iran has captured the attention of global markets, but analysts at Bank of America say the overall risk to the U.S. economy remains contained for now. In a research note, BofA analyst Meghan Swiber said the firm’s baseline outlook for the U.S. economy has not materially changed despite the developments. “We believe U.S. macro risks are likely limited unless [there is a] pronounced oil spike,” Swiber wrote, noting that the main near-term impact could be on the timing of Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts and the trajectory of the U.S. dollar. Oil prices remain the central transmission channel for any macroeconomic effects. According to BofA, a commonly used rule of thumb suggests that a $10 increase in crude prices could push personal consumption expenditures inflation up by roughly 0.1 percentage points while trimming GDP growth by a similar amount. “The Fed estimates a 10% increase in the oil price raises PCE inflation by roughly 10bp near term,” Swiber wrote, though she added that the impact typically fades within a year as higher energy costs weigh on demand for other goods and services. BofA also noted that the U.S. economy is less vulnerable to oil shocks than in the past because the country is now a net exporter of oil and gas, meaning higher prices can partly benefit domestic producers. Looking ahead, the Federal Reserve is expected to remain cautious. Swiber said the Fed will likely adopt a wait-and-see approach as policymakers assess whether higher oil prices translate into broader inflation or slower growth. Source: Investing.com 2026-03-07 hellenicshippingnews... window.___gcfg = {lang: 'en-US'}; (function(w, d, s) { function go(){ var js, fjs = d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0], load = function(url, id) { if (d.getElementById(id)) {return;} js = d.createElement(s); js.src = url; js.id = id; fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js, fjs); }; load('//connect.facebook.net/en/all.js#xfbml=1', 'fbjssdk'); load('https://apis.google.com/js/plusone.js', 'gplus1js'); load('//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js', 'tweetjs'); } if (w.addEventListener) { w.addEventListener("load", go, false); } else if (w.attachEvent) { w.attachEvent("onload",go); } }(window, document, 'script')); tweet Share