Global trade in 2026: significant slowdown amid large shifts in World Economy News 02/02/2026 Global trade has proved resilient, but will take a hit in 2026 2025 will go down in history as the year everything changed in global trade. When US President Donald Trump announced a sweeping set of tariffs in April using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), global trade was jolted into sudden adjustment. Expected price increases sparked a widespread wave of frontloading, especially in the US, even bringing forward the container shipping peak season as importers rushed to secure goods for the second half of the year. Despite these disruptions, global trade proved more resilient than anticipated. The US, the world’s largest economy, represents roughly 14% of global imports, and many affected Chinese exporters successfully diverted shipments to new markets. Overall, we forecast global trade volume to end FY2025 at 4.2% year-over-year growth, surpassing expectations. Most of this growth stems from strong numbers in the first and second quarters, and can largely be attributed to frontloading effects. In the third and fourth quarters, trade growth slowed substantially, due to correction effects, and we expect a further flattening. For FY2026, we therefore believe that, because frontloading effects will disappear, global trade growth will remain limited to just 0.5-1%. Tumultuous start of 2026 sets the tone for lasting volatility and lower growth The start of 2026 underscored that volatility is here to stay. The US president escalated his efforts to take control of Greenland and threatened European countries with additional tariffs. The same applies to Canada, which is seeking to deepen trade relations with overseas partners, including China. These episodes illustrate a broader pattern: the US could continue to view tariff measures as a tool of strategic policy. And more events lie ahead, such as the trade deal with China expiring in October 2026. The crackdown on free trade means momentum is expected to weaken further in 2026. Higher barriers will continue to force trade adjustments and dampen global trade growth, despite some bright spots such as intra-Asia trade. Trade adapts, but future growth will be more tempered Global imbalances seem to have reached their limits. Specialisation and globalisation have created significant economic benefits – especially in the 1990s – but they have also created dependencies that are now being scrutinised. And this comes at a cost. Global merchant trade growth has lagged GDP growth for several years, and rising protectionism is further weighing on its potential. As geopolitical tensions intensify and efficiency is a subordinated priority, trade has entered a new period of slower growth and greater fragmentation. The days of strong supply chain globalisation Significant regional differences beneath the surface While global trade exceeded expectations, regional dynamics reveal significant divergences. Asia remains the growth engine of global trade and is likely to continue outpacing the world. In contrast, eurozone external trade has barely expanded in recent quarters. Elevated energy costs in Europe continue to weigh on industrial exports, particularly to China and the US. Germany – the largest economy in the eurozone – experienced substantial shifts in trade flows in 2025. Chinese exporters increasingly stepped in as a major competitor in typical German strongholds such as cars, pharma and ind