VLCC Freight Rates Unexpectedly Surged During The Spring Festival, Further Validating The Upward Trend In Oil Shipping in International Shipping News 03/03/2026 During the Spring Festival, VLCC freight rates rose more than expected, and overseas oil shipping stocks continued their upward trend; the logic of restricted non-compliant markets for VLCCs and improved supply-demand dynamics in compliant markets continues to be validated. According to Zhitong Finance APP, Guosheng Securities issued a research report stating that according to Captain Energy, the VLCC TD3C freight rate index increased from WS137.5 on February 13 to WS169.4 on February 20, marking a 23.2% increase. The freight rates continued to rise during the off-season and hit a new high since May 2020. In the short term, the VLCC freight rate rose more than expected during the Spring Festival, indicating a strong performance even in the off-season; in the medium term, with the ongoing dynamics of sanctioned markets such as Venezuela, Iran, and Russia, supply-demand conditions in compliant markets continue to improve, reinforcing the upward cycle logic for the oil shipping sector. The main viewpoints of Guosheng Securities are as follows: Unexpected rise in VLCC freight rates during the Spring Festival, overseas oil shipping stocks extend gains According to Captain Energy, the VLCC TD3C freight rate index rose from WS137.5 on February 13 to WS169.4 on February 20, representing a 23.2% increase. Freight rates continued to climb during the off-season, reaching a new high since May 2020. According to Wind, the respective increases (based on the closing price on February 12) of major overseas oil shipping companies FRO/DHT/Teekay/Scorpio from February 13 to February 20 were 16.94%/13.16%/9.47%/5.74%. FRO and DHT, which primarily operate VLCCs, saw more significant gains, while Scorpio, focused on refined oil transportation, lagged relatively behind. The logic of restricted non-compliant VLCC markets and improved supply-demand relations in compliant markets continues to be validated. In 2025, the United States and the European Union tightened sanctions multiple times on crude oil and related tanker assets from countries like Russia and Iran. Coupled with OPEC+ shifting part of its production increase to exports, the supply-demand relationship in compliant VLCC markets significantly improved, leading to stronger freight rates on major routes. Since January 2026, due to geopolitical conflicts in regions like Venezuela and Iran, the aforementioned logic has been further validated: On one hand, East Asia reduced imports of sanctioned crude oil from Iran and Russia, shifting towards compliant markets such as the Middle East, West Africa, Brazil, and the U.S. Gulf, improving the demand structure for VLCCs—according to Teekay, India’s imports of Russian oil had dropped to 1 million barrels per day by January 2026, with floating storage of Russian and Iranian crude exceeding 300 million barrels at sea. On the other hand, sanctioned VLCCs have become increasingly marginalized. As of February 15, the U.S. had seized nine sanctioned tankers, expanding enforcement from the Caribbean to the Indian Ocean. Currently, there are 154 sanctioned VLCCs, accounting for 17% of existing capacity, with an average vessel age of 21.3 years. The evolution of current geopolitical conflicts remains uncertain: (1) If sanctions tighten further, importers in East Asia may shift further to compliant market crude,