EIA forecasts elevated oil prices in the first half of 2026 in Oil & Companies News 15/05/2026 The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects the Brent crude spot price to average $106/bbl in May and June 2026, before declining to around $79/bbl the following year. The EIA forecasts Brent crude to average close to $100/bbl this year as the continuing Middle East conflict unsettles global markets and sharply reduces vessel movements through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude’s spot price increased sharply last month, reaching a high of $138/bbl on 7 April and averaging $117/bbl for the month, as the de-facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz tightened global oil flows, the EIA noted. “This monthly average price [in April] is also the highest since June 2022, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,” the EIA said. “Daily Brent spot prices increased significantly in April, reflecting the tightness and demand for physical barrels of crude oil for delivery in the very near term,” the US agency added. The energy agency has clarified that the price forecast is highly dependent on its assumptions of the duration of the US-Irael conflict with Iran and resulting outages in oil production. The EIA expects the Strait of Hormuz to remain effectively closed through late May, with flows slowly starting to resume in late May or early June. “Even after flows resume, we expect it will take until late 2026 or early 2027 for most pre-conflict production and trade patterns to resume,” the energy agency said in its May short-term energy outlook (STEO) report. Supply and demand estimates Global liquid fuels production is expected to reach 101.6 million b/d in 2026 – about 2.8 million b/d lower than the EIA’s previous estimate. The decline in annual production estimates come as supply outages in Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain – due to the Middle East war – averaged 10.5 million b/d last month. Production shut-ins are expected to increase to a peak of nearly