The Panamax market: A supply-side story in Dry Bulk Market , International Shipping News 05/05/2026 After Pacific market strength that has exceeded seasonal norms, Panamax earnings are set to rebalance as a rise in ships discharging in China boosts supply in the Pacific, and strength in Capesize and Supramax earnings offers upside potential for the Atlantic. The Panamax Atlantic round-voyage rate has been at a discount of at least $1,500/day to the Pacific equivalent since mid-February, averaging -$4,935/day over the 45 trading days 18 February to 24 April. This is an exaggeration of the typical seasonal trend and compares with an average discount of -$3,896/day over the same period last year. The premium on Pacific Panamax earnings reflects tighter vessel supply through February and into April. South American grain chartering, Brazilian soybeans and to a lesser extent Argentine corn, has drawn vessels out of the Pacific and into the South Atlantic. Most of these vessels would have been fixed and off the market. At 709, the average number of Panamax ballasters in the Pacific in the first 17 weeks of the year was down from 742 over the same period last year and below a five-year average of 733. This is a seasonal trend that was exaggerated this year by a combination of higher Brazilian soybean exports and port delays. Brazil shipped an exceptional 15.67Mt of soybeans in March, Kpler data show, and April is on track to be similarly strong. We expect Brazil to export 112.92Mt of soybeans in the 2025/26 trade year (September-August), up from 101.91Mt in 2024/25. More than three-quarters of these cargoes will go to China. Meanwhile, phytosanitary checks briefly interrupted Brazilian soybean loadings in March and led to a buildup of Panamaxes outside the country’s ports. This tied up vessels in the Atlantic, tightened supply across the global fleet, and supported earnings. However, this picture has now changed. Congestion at Brazilian load ports is clearing, and with grea