OPEC Keeps Annual Oil Demand Growth Unchanged, But Sees Drop During the Second Quarter in Oil & Companies News 15/04/2026 Crude Oil Price Movements In March, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value increased by $48.46/b, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $116.36/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract increased by $30.23/b, m-o-m, to average $99.60/b, and the NYMEX WTI front-month contract increased by $26.48/b, m-o-m, to average $91/b. The GME Oman front-month contract increased by $56.14/b, m-o-m, to $124.56/b. The Brent–WTI front-month spread increased by $3.75/b, m-o-m, to average $8.60/b. The forward curves of all major crude futures benchmarks – ICE Brent, NYMEX WTI, and GME Oman – steepened sharply, and the calendar spreads between the nearest futures contracts moved into deeper backwardation. Hedge funds and other money managers turned increasingly bullish on oil, sharply increasing their net long positions amid supply disruptions and higher oil prices. World Economy The global economic growth forecasts remain unchanged from last month’s assessment at 3.1% for 2026 and 3.2% for 2027. The US economic growth forecasts remain at 2.2% for 2026 and 2.0% for 2027. In the Eurozone, the economic growth forecasts remain at 1.2% for both 2026 and 2027. Japan’s economic growth forecasts remain at 0.9% for both 2026 and 2027. The economic growth forecasts for China remain at 4.5% for both 2026 and 2027. India’s economic growth forecasts remain at 6.6% for 2026 and 6.5% for 2027. Brazil’s economic growth forecasts remain at 2.0% for 2026 and 2.2% for 2027. Russia’s economic growth forecasts remain at 1.3% for 2026 and 1.5% for 2027. World Oil Demand The global oil demand is forecast to grow by a healthy 1.4 mb/d in 2026, y-o-y, unchanged from last month’s assessment. The OECD is forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d, while the non-OECD is forecast to grow by about 1.3 mb/d. In 2027, global oil demand is forecast to grow by about 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y, also unchanged from last month’s assessment. The OECD is forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d, while the non-OECD is forecast to grow by around 1.2 mb/d. World Oil Supply Non-DoC liquids production (i.e., liquids production from countries not participating in the Declaration of Cooperation) is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026, unchanged from last month’s assessment. The main drivers of liquids production growth are expected to be Brazil, US, Canada, and Argentina. In 2027, non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, also unchanged from last month’s assessment, driven mainly by Brazil, Qatar, Canada, and Argentina. Natural gas liquids (NGLs) and nonconventional liquids from countries participating in the DoC are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026, to average about 8.8 mb/d, followed by similar growth in 2027 of about 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, to average about 8.9 mb/d. In March, crude oil production by countries participating in the DoC dropped by 7.70 mb/d, m-o-m, to average about 35.06 mb/d, according to available secondary sources. Product Markets and Refining Operations In March, refining margins surged across all major regions, given the sharp reduction in product output and rising middle distillate crack spreads, which reached multi-year highs. Trade flow constraints and refinery run cuts in the East of Suez contributed further pressure on product margins amid the heavy refinery maintenance season. This situation led to a price increase for products that outpaced the rise in