Green energy stocks remain on growth cycle on new macro tailwinds in General Energy News 25/04/2026 Green energy equities are continuing their growth phase, supported by geopolitical disruption and structural demand shifts, although the recovery remains incomplete and uneven across segments and companies. After losing nearly 60% of its value between its 2021 peak and the November 2023 trough, the Rystad Energy Green Energy Index has rebounded, returning almost 40% over the prior year and 9% in the first quarter this year. The index stands at around 88 (versus a January 2021 baseline of 100), still roughly 38% below its 2021 peak, but over a year of positive returns now indicates the recovery is materializing. The rebound has been driven by two key macro forces. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, have lifted crude prices, directly improving biofuel margins and reinforcing the case for domestic energy production. At the same time, rapid growth in AI-driven data centers has created a new source of power demand, driving strong gains in fuel cell companies. These dynamics have also altered market behavior: in March, while the S&P 500 fell 5% amid geopolitical shocks, the Green Energy Index still returned +3%, signaling a structural shift in how the sector responds to volatility. Despite this positive backdrop, the recovery remains highly concentrated. A small group of companies – including Bloom Energy, Neste, Vestas, Nordex, Orsted, and Samsung SDI – has driven most of the gains. Excluding these top performers, the broader market delivered close to zero return over the six-month period, highlighting that the current growth cycle is still narrow and dependent on a limited set of segments and catalysts. At the segment level, performance divergence is pronounced. Biofuels have been the standout, delivering +76% returns, with even the ex-top-performer basket at +69%, driven largely by renewable diesel and ethanol margins expanding alongside higher crude prices. Hydrogen followed with +67%, led by fuel cell companies such as Bloom Energy (+92%), Doosan (+62%) and FuelCell Energy (+37%), reflecting data center-related demand, although Bloom’s gain is partly priced on expectation rather than realized revenue. In contrast, electrolyzer companies lagged, with returns ranging from +0.5% to −45%, reflecting weaker policy support. Solar and wind delivered +16%, with European wind companies – Nordex (+105%), Vestas (+56%) and Orsted (+35%) – benefiting from improved margins and stronger policy backing, although the segment remains about 32% below its 2021 baseline. Batteries were the main drag at −2%, with sharp declines in Chinese upstream names such as EVE (−24%), Gotion (−21%) and Farasis (−37%), while CATL (about 29% of the index) returned just +3%. Samsung SDI was a notable exception at +83%. Regional performance mirrors these trends. Europe led with +43%, supported by wind and biofuel exposure and strong policy alignment with energy security. China lagged at −2% due to structural weakness in its battery sector, while North America delivered a modest +6%, with performance skewed by a few large names. A structural divide persists across the value chain. Supply chain companies have recovered strongly and now sit about 15% above their January 2021 baseline, benefiting from rising deployment volumes. In contrast, project developers remain around 35% below 2021 levels, constrained by high financi