The Middle East continues to be a vital part of the global oil market, both in terms of production from nations in the region, and a bottleneck in global seaborne oil supply chains. In December OPEC+ announced that it would trim production further, reducing the amount of seaborne exports of crude oil from the region. OPEC+ is to cut its output by 2.19m barrels per day for all of Q1 2024, led by Saudi Arabia rolling over its existing cut. Total OPEC+ production curbs now exceed 5m barrels per day, though this is a theoretical number at best and barely relates to actual output as most suppliers bust their quotas regularly. OPEC+ now provides around 40% of global crude oil, while OPEC itself amounts to around 30% of the total. Any tanker operators who were worried about the cuts might have wondered if they reflected a real global lack of oil demand or they were simply about supporting prices in an era of overcapacity in global oil production. In any event, less OPEC oil on the water – the cuts are equivalent to about one VLCC cargo per day – would ordinarily be bad news for crude oil tanker freight markets. However, the Middle East’s geopolitical centrality came to the fore at the same time, as the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen began lobbing explosives at all and sundry vessels passing within range of their cheap but effective armaments. The advice from the US Navy, patrolling the area with its UK Royal Navy poodle in tow, is to stay out of the area. As insurance premiums rise with risk, shipowners are, in increasing numbers, deciding to avoid the area around Bab el Mandeb and sail around the Cape of Good Hope to transit from the Indian Ocean to the Atlantic (or vice versa). The world’s biggest importer of oil, China, has said little and done less at this point, because its oil supplies from the region are not (yet) being targeted. Ships loading in the MEG turn to port (east) as they sail south out of the Gulf, staying well away from Yemen. Thus VLCC time charter equivalent earnings from the MEG to China, having ended 2023 at around $35,000 a day, rose to a peak of around $49,700 in mid-January before slipping back to $35,000 later in the month. VLCC rates from the US to China did better, ending 2023 at $32,300 a day and similarly peaked at over $55,500 on January 15, but fell less rapidly to $44,500 or so by the January 26. VLCCs sailing to East Asia from West Africa enjoyed the highest rates of the month with TCEs peaking at around $55,000 a day in mid-January before slipping back to around $36,000. Suezmax earnings exceed those for VLCCs throughout December and performed well in January too, with brokers quoting rising rates for the main West Africa – Europe voyage during the month, from $37,000 at the end of December to $54,500 at the end of January. Suezmax earnings on the cross-Med route zoomed in January from below $30,000 to over $70,000 before falling back in the last week of the month to $53,500 or so. Yet it was once again the aframaxes which were the owners’ darlings in January with rates in the Caribbean increasing from around $26,000 at the end of December to over $104,000 in late January. Afras trading from the US Gulf to Europe enjoyed a rapid rise in earnings in the first half of January from around $38,000 to a high of over $81,000 but slid back to around $51,000 later on in the month. In the North Sea, afras have enjoyed their usual winter premium, with earnings to the UK moving from a low of $58,500 in early January to $