US-Iran conflict: Strait of Hormuz crisis reshapes global oil markets in International Shipping News 04/03/2026 The US-Iran conflict has put the Strait of Hormuz on a knife’s edge. We break down what this supply disruption means for oil prices, jet fuel, LNG, and global energy flows – and what commodity market professionals need to know right now. Current situation overview The United States has struck Iran, killing the Supreme Leader and triggering an active military conflict now in its second day. Iran has retaliated beyond symbolic measures – striking Gulf neighbours including the UAE and Saudi Arabia, and threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz. What began as a potentially contained operation has rapidly broadened into a regional crisis with direct implications for global energy supply, freight markets, and commodity pricing. This is no longer a geopolitical risk premium in the abstract. Supply is being disrupted in real time. Market context: why the Strait of Hormuz is the epicentre The Strait of Hormuz is the world’s single most critical energy chokepoint. Any meaningful closure – or even a sustained de facto closure driven by insurance withdrawal – would trigger supply shocks across multiple commodity classes simultaneously. Key terms defined Strait of Hormuz: A narrow waterway between Iran and Oman connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the open ocean Gasoil: Another term for diesel fuel, used primarily in transportation and industrial applications LPG (Liquefied Petroleum Gas): A fuel consisting primarily of propane and butane, used for heating, cooking, and vehicles LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas): Natural gas cooled to liquid form for easier storage and transport Volume dependencies at risk The Strait is not formally closed. Kpler vessel tracking shows limited traffic continuing – primarily Iranian and Chinese-flagged ships – but commercial operators, major oil companies, and insurers have effectively withdrawn from the corridor. Insurance premiums had already reached six-year highs ahead of the strikes. The result: A de facto closure for most of the global shipping community, comparable in character to the Red Sea disruption – but with far larger volumes at stake. Key insights and analysis We monitor vessel movements and cargo flows to inform this assessment. Iran’s retaliation strategy: no limits on the table Iran’s response has departed sharply from the largely symbolic retaliation seen during the June 2025 conflict. Missile and drone strikes have hit UAE territory – including the Jebel Ali port, multiple five-star hotels, and Abu Dhabi port infrastructure – as well as targets in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain. Iran had pre-positioned warheads near regional borders in anticipation of this scenario. This suggests the broader escalation was planned, not improvised. Iran’s strategic logic is clear: Iran cannot defeat the US militarily Iran can inflict economic pain by targeting oil prices Elevated energy costs undermine US consumer confidence Higher prices complicate the administration’s economic narrative With the leadership structure under sustained attack, Iranian decision-making has shifted from coercive signalling towards existential defence. All options – including infrastructure strikes and Strait interdiction – must now be treated as live risks. Oil price outlook: Brent set for a sharp Monday open Oil markets closed Friday with Brent at approximately $73/bbl. The consensus among analysts points to an open in the