Crude oil prices climbed during June, narrowing Asian refining margins with some effect on tanker freight rates. WTI rose from a June 4 low of $73.25 to a June 20 high of $81.29. Similarly, between the same dates, Brent was up from $77.52 to $85.99, and Dubai Blend was up $78.87 to $82.49, narrowing the delta between it and WTI for the first time in several months. In the medium term, global oil markets still look oversupplied, absent output cuts from OPEC+, with Citi being the latest institution to forecast falling prices, saying it expects crude to trade in the mid-$60s in 2025 following rising inventories later this year. Citi also expects oil demand growth to slow and peak “before the end of this decade” given the rise of alternative, low-carbon energy sources. In the here and now, tighter spot crude oil markets led to falling Asian refinery margins. Singapore margins averaged $7.15 over the 12 months to June but in mid-June were as low as $2.90. This has led to weakening crude import demand and falling eastbound freight rates. VLCC rates from the US to China lost 28% between May 21 and June 21, falling to $37,250. On the shorter Middle East to China voyage, rates lost a tear-jerking 49% over those dates to end up at $26,190. On Middle East to Singapore voyages, daily TCEs fell 47% to $28,960. On the West Africa- China voyage, earnings fell 40% to $32,700 a day. June to date monthly average VLCC earnings are $35,546 compared to $48,145 in May and $39,989 in March, the only other month this year in which the average fell below $40,000 a day. In Europe, declining refinery capacity, the Ukraine war, and geopolitical strife have combined to support refining margins and spot crude oil demand. Consequently, suezmax earnings have not fallen on voyages to the EU. Freight from West Africa to Western Europe (Baltic route TD20) was stable in May and June, ranging between $43,000 and $47,000 a day, while suezmax earnings from the Middle East to the Mediterranean fell 5% to $37,747 on June 21 compared to May 21, disguising an early June peak of $48,435 a day. The June average daily TCE for suezmaxes is $47,285, the highest number since January’s $57,590. Aframaxes have done well in the Atlantic but have fared poorly elsewhere. US crude grades remain popular in the EU, as evinced by a nifty 27% increase in freight from the USG to ARA, rising from $35,150 on May 21 to $44,473 on June 21, via a heady June 13 peak of $59,746. In the North Sea, daily TCEs for aframaxes discharging in the UK were steady at around $48,500 – $50,500 a day in the 30 days to June 21, while discharge in Germany added a premium with TCEs rising 26% to $62,130 having peaked at $68,100 on June 11. Meanwhile ,the daily TCE for afras sailing from Kuwait to Singapore drifted down from an early June peak of $55,000 a day to $48,075 a day on June 21, about where it was 30 days earlier. On the Singapore to Australia voyage, rates ended May at around $40,000, hit almost $44,400 in early June but then slid back to $39,600 on June 21. Overall, monthly aframax average earnings as reported by the Baltic Exchange have been $54,591 during the first three weeks of June compared to $45,301 in May. This makes June the best month since January when rates averaged $63,059. The Baltic Dirty Tanker Index averages 1,242 in June and 1,235 for the year to date, making this the best year since 1,391 in 2022, before which one has to go back to 2008’s average of 1,510 to find a better year. In the dec