China’s demand is the heaviest factor for commodities in 2025 in Dry Bulk Market,International Shipping News 08/01/2026 In 2025, seaborne dry bulk flows showed mixed trends across major commodities. Iron ore exports grew modestly, with China remaining the dominant importer despite a slowdown in domestic steel production. Coal shipments fell, reflecting China’s rising domestic production and shift toward renewables. Bauxite flows surged, driven by strong Chinese aluminium production and, more recently, due to substitution for higher-cost copper. Chinese steel exports rose as domestic demand softened, with India emerging as a key destination. Dry Bulk Flows | Iron Ore In 2025, Signal Ocean recorded that seaborne iron ore flows increased by 2.5% to reach 1.8 billion tons. Australia was the origin for 55% of all seaborne iron ore exports, consistent with the previous year. China remained the top destination for flows, accounting for 75%, which was consistent with the figure in 2024. Given that the global overall volumes increased by 2.5%, China imported 23mt more seaborne iron ore in 2025 than in 2024. Despite this, the steel sector in China, the largest consumer of iron ore, has seen a persistent slowdown. The most recent figures, up to November 2025, show a year-to-date decrease in crude steel production in China of close to 5%. 2026 is shaping up to be an interesting year for iron ore, with considerable downward pressure likely on price. The market consensus is that Chinese steel production will continue to fall y/y as the government tightens production controls and global trade barriers weigh on export opportunities. Weaker demand from the largest global consumer comes at a time when supply is set to surge as the largest untapped, high-grade iron ore mine, Simandou, starts to ramp up production. Once at full capacity, the mine will produce around 120mt per annum. India will increase steel production in 2026 to align with domestic demand growth from infrastructure developments. However, in both 2025 and 2024, India has accounted for less than 2.5% of global iron ore imports, so growth will not be enough to meaningfully move the needle for the shipping industry. Lower iron ore prices could incentivize buyers to replenish their inventories, supporting export volumes. Yet, the effect of this will be limited in the short term as Chinese port stocks of iron ore are reportedly already high. Buyers will wait until prices drop before returning to the market. Low prices in 2025 already led to an inventory build that would be unsustainable for the entirety of 2026. Dry Bulk Flows| Coal In 2025, Signal Ocean recorded that seaborne coal flows decreased 3.4% to 1.4 billion tonnes. Indonesia was the origin for 37% of all seaborne coal tonnage recorded by TSOP, softening slightly from a 38% share in 2024. China remained the largest receiver of seaborne coal from TSOP, but it did soften in 2025 to 29% from 31% in 2024. Thermal coal makes up the majority of seaborne coal tonnage, around 77%. China has imported 11% less seaborne thermal coal in 2025 than it did last year. Some of this is due to increased domestic coal production. The latest figures from the NBS show that Chinese coal production is 3% ahead of the same period in 2024. A more interesting trend, though, is China’s divergence away from thermal power generation, towards greater reliance on renewable energy. NBS statistics state that thermal power production in China is 1% lower so far in 2025