Strait of Hormuz closure risks greatest global energy supply shock in decades, Wood Mackenzie warns in International Shipping News 23/05/2026 A prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz poses the single greatest threat to global energy markets in decades, according to a new Horizons report from Wood Mackenzie, Strait Talking: Iran War Scenarios and the Future of Energy. More than 11 million barrels per day (b/d) of Gulf crude and condensate production is currently curtailed. Meanwhile, over 80 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) of LNG supply, equivalent to around 20% of global supply, remains inaccessible to global markets. In its new report, Wood Mackenzie has shared three distinct scenarios: Quick Peace, Summer Settlement and Extended Disruption. Each scenario offers a different timeline for ending the conflict and reopening the Strait and assesses the potential impact on oil and gas supply, prices, energy demand and the broader global economy. “The Strait of Hormuz is the most critical chokepoint in global energy markets, and a prolonged closure would become far more than an energy crisis,” said Peter Martin, head of economics at Wood Mackenzie. “The longer disruption persists, the greater the impact on energy prices, industrial activity, trade flows and global economic growth.” Quick Peace Under the most optimistic ‘Quick Peace’ scenario, a workable peace agreement is reached in the near term, and the Strait reopens by June. The global economy broadly returns to its pre-war trajectory by Q4 2026. Crude prices fall sharply following a deal, with Dated Brent easing to around US$80/bbl by end-2026 and declining further to US$65/bbl in 2027 as the oil market returns to oversupply. Global GDP growth slows from 3% in 2025 to 2.3% in 2026, with a recession limited to the Middle East. The global economy broadly returns to its pre-conflict trajectory by Q4 2026. Summer Settlement The ‘Summer Settlement’ scenario assumes the ceasefire holds but negotiations extend into late