What’s happening to the UK economy and how does it affect you? in World Economy News 01/04/2026 The government often talks about the importance of economic growth. However, many politicians and economists are concerned that the UK economy is not growing fast enough. Economic growth matters because it affects things like pay increases for workers and the amount of tax the government raises to pay for services. What is GDP and why does it matter? GDP stands for gross domestic product, which is a measure of all the economic activity of companies, governments, and people in a country. In the UK, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) publishes new GDP figures every month. However, these can vary quite a lot and the quarterly figures – covering three months at a time – are considered more significant. Most economists, politicians, and businesses like to see GDP rising steadily. That’s because it usually means people are spending more, extra jobs are created, more tax is paid, and workers get better pay rises. When GDP is falling, it means the economy is shrinking. This can be bad news for businesses and workers as it can lead to pay freezes and job losses. If GDP falls for two quarters in a row, that is known as a recession. What is happening to the UK economy? The latest figures show that the UK economy failed to grow in January. When the Labour government took power in July 2024, it said growth was its top priority. Although the economy grew faster than expected at the start of 2025 – expanding by 0.7% in the January-to-March period – its performance slowed steadily as the year progressed. GDP was estimated to have increased by 1.4% across 2025 as a whole, up from 1.1% in 2024. The ONS says the overall picture remains one of “subdued growth”. In the Spring Statement in March, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) – the government’s official forecaster – cut its prediction for how much the UK’s economy would grow this year to 1.1% from 1.4%. However, the OBR upgraded its growth estimates for both 2027 and 2028 to 1.6%, up from 1.5% previously. How does GDP affect tax and public services? If GDP is going up steadily, people pay more in tax because they’re earning and spending more. This means more money for the government, which it can choose to spend on public services, such as schools, police and hospitals. When the economy shrinks and a country goes into recession, these things can go into reverse. Governments tend to get less money in tax, which means they may decide to freeze or cut public spending, or put taxes up. In 2020, the Covid pandemic caused the most severe UK recession for more than 300 years, which forced the government to borrow hundreds of billions of pounds to support the economy. How is GDP measured? GDP can be measured in three ways: Output: The total value of goods and services produced by all sectors of the economy – agriculture, manufacturing, energy, construction, the service sector and government. Expenditure: The value of goods and services bought by households and by government, investment in machinery and buildings. This also includes the value of exports, minus imports. In the UK, the ONS publishes one single measure of GDP, which is calculated using all three measurements. But early estimates mainly use the output measure, using data collected from thousands of companies. Why does the GDP figure sometimes change? The UK produces one of the quickest estimates of GDP of the major economies, about 40 days a