CTAs capitalise on energy trends in turbulent Q1 in Commodity News 17/04/2026 This report outlines the main drivers of CTA performance in Q1 2026. Intro In Q1, CTAs generated strong returns* despite volatile market conditions, with energy leading performance (+6.25%), supported by metals (+1.28%) and agriculture (+1.01%). January: Exceptionally strong CTA performance, driven by sustained rallies in precious and base metals on the back of rate cut expectations, complemented by robust equity gains and supportive trends across agriculture. February: CTAs captured accelerating momentum in agriculture and equities, while navigating a partial recovery in metals following the late-January correction. Gold briefly rebounded on renewed safe-haven demand amid escalating US–Iran tensions, although the move proved short-lived as macro headwinds reasserted themselves. March: Significant CTA gains in crude and middle distillates were offset by weakness in precious metals (higher yields), base metals (China growth concerns), and soybeans (export demand uncertainty). A broader equity sell-off further weighed on March returns, reversing the strong performance seen in the prior two months. Energy: CTAs captured strong momentum across crude and products, building long exposure ahead of and during the Hormuz disruption · Brent and WTI: Middle Eastern supply outages have reached 430 Mbbl as of April 10, providing structural support to markets previously expected to be oversupplied. CTAs pivoted aggressively, shifting from 91% short (early January) to 100% long by March 9 in both Brent and WTI, maintaining maximum long exposure until April 8. · Gasoil and ULSD: Middle distillates were the most impacted across the barrel, with jet fuel tightness spilling over into Gasoil and ULSD. Trend CTAs increased Gasoil exposure from 9% short (Jan 8) to 100% long (Feb 27). Henry Hub: No sustained trend emerged in US natural gas, limiting CTA participation. Geopolitical risk premia partially offset bearish fundamentals (strong supply and storage), keeping positioning more muted. Metals: Solid CTA Q1 performance, with January rally offsetting subsequent weakness Rate cut expectations drove a January rally that CTAs captured, but performance faded as the war and rising yields weighed on the complex: Gold: A milder late-January correction (vs. silver) allowed CTAs to retain long exposure and capture the subsequent rebound. However, a more hawkish central bank backdrop, coupled with strong CTA selling, pressured prices, with Trend CTAs flipping net short on March 19 for the first time in two years. Silver: Its dual precious/industrial role amplified downside from China growth concerns and higher yields. Trend CTAs reversed direction three times during Q1, weighing on performance. Base metals: CTAs captured Hormuz-driven upside in aluminium, supported by GCC exposure (~8% of global supply). In contrast, copper came under pressure from China growth concerns linked to Hormuz dependence . Ags/softs: CTAs navigated mixed and uneven trends across grains, softs, and live stock Soy complex: Expectations for higher US biodiesel mandates and export optimism (Chinese demand) drove bullish momentum in soybeans and soybean oil through mid-March. CTAs responded quickly, shifting from 27% short (Jan 6) to 100% long (Feb 6) in soybeans, and from 36% short (Jan 5) to 100% long (Jan 28) in soybean oil. Positioning was subsequently scaled back as prices weakened following delays to the US–China