US–Iran war: Implications for the crude tanker market in International Shipping News 04/03/2026 The ongoing US–Iran conflict has severely disrupted maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz—a narrow but strategically vital waterway between Oman and Iran that connects crude oil exporters in the Persian Gulf with global markets. In response to ongoing arm conflict, vessels are diverting away from the Strait to evade the threat of attack. At the same time, impending withdrawal of war risk cover by several insurers are further discouraging shipowners from transiting the passage. Sustained blockade in crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz would have profound implications for global oil supply and energy security as it handles roughly 15 mbpd of crude oil, equivalent to nearly one-third of global seaborne crude trade. Viable alternatives to bypass the Strait are extremely limited. All major Middle Eastern OPEC producers—Saudi Arabia, Iran, the UAE, Kuwait and Iraq—depend heavily on this route for their crude exports. Although Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Iraq operate pipelines that provide partial overland export options, their combined spare capacity is estimated at only around 4 mbpd. Thus, the current blockade has disrupted more than 11 mbpd of crude supply, potentially triggering a sharp spike in oil prices, heightened market volatility and significant downstream effects on inflation and economic growth worldwide. Meanwhile, oil markets have already begun pricing in heightened geopolitical risk. Brent Crude futures climbed from $73.15 per barrel on February 27—prior to the outbreak of hostilities—to $79.11 per barrel by March 2, following retaliatory strikes in the Gulf. Additionally, any sustained spike in crude oil prices would directly lift bunker fuel prices, as marine fuels are derived from refinery feedstocks linked to crude benchmarks. Higher feedstock costs would therefore translate into elevated bunker prices across major bunkering hubs. In a scenario of prolonged supply tightness, refiners may also be forced to reduce throughput due to limited crude availability or margin compression. Lower refinery runs would, in turn, constrain the production of fuel oil and marine gasoil, tightening bunker supply. The combined effect of higher input costs and restricted output would place sustained upward pressure on bunker prices, which would significantly increase voyage expenses and operating costs across shipping sectors. While approximately 88% of crude passing through the Strait of Hormuz is destined for Asian markets—with China, India and Japan as the largest importers—the ongoing disruption would tighten global oil supply. Even though the direct exposure is highest in Asia, constrained supply through this critical chokepoint would tighten the global oil balance and amplify competition for alternative cargoes. Short-term implications for crude tankers Given the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz to global oil supply, the duration of any disruption is critical. In the immediate aftermath, there will be chaos as buyers scramble to secure alternative barrels from West Africa, Latin America and North America. Although OPEC+ has announced a production increase of 206 kbpd from April, such incremental additions would offer little relief if the Strait remains closed. Spare production capacity outside the Middle East is limited, meaning replacement volumes would be insufficient to offset a large-scale disruption of Gulf exports.