Home News and Resources News News 19 Oct, 2022 Foot on the Gas - Waypoints Issue 03 The geopolitical turmoil of recent months has placed the shipping markets, and in particular, the LNG sector, once again at the centre of global events. And with energy security adding further upside to a market already expecting plenty of underlying growth from Asian demand, energy transition dynamics and a lengthy export project list, LNG shipping looks set for a significant growth phase. Download PDF Stephen Gordon  (Managing Director, Clarkson Research) Tracking the Growth Although progress can be uneven, LNG trade has a track record of underlying growth (20-year growth averages 6.5%, compared to 3.4% for gas pipeline trade, 2.4% for global gas demand and 1.0% for seaborne oil trade. And while trade growth is expected to slow a little next year (to 4% from 5% this year as we wait for liquification projects to come online), the case for future growth is supported by both strong export capacity expansion (the Clarksons database has 155mtpa of liquification capacity under construction, 303mtpa at FEED and 295mtpa proposed: for context current capacity is 459mtpa) and the prospect of LNG potentially benefiting, at least initially, from the energy transition (in our modelling, LNG trade grows more quickly in a Paris aligned rapid decarbonisation case in part due to coal to gas switching). Energy Security Anybody who has had the misfortunate to open an energy bill of late will have appreciated the pricing shock being experienced across the gas markets. Initially driven by Covid-19 demand rebound, inventory building in both Europe and Asia, cold winters gas market tightness has been exacerbated by the supply concerns surrounding Russian gas. For context, Russia is the second largest gas producer, with 17% of global gas supply in 2021, and met around 40% of European gas demand pre-conflict.  And while these dynamics are contributing to inflation and macro-economic headwind