Dry bulk markets stay firm ahead of Lunar New Year pressure points in Dry Bulk Market,International Shipping News 05/02/2026 Capesize Tonne Miles to China While the WAUS–China trade remains the largest by volume, the Africa–North China Capesize route has seen a larger increase in tonne-mile demand over the last year than the Brazil–China route. The dry bulk freight market has demonstrated robust performance in the Atlantic and Pacific basins in the lead-up to China’s Lunar New Year. This strength is evidenced by the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) surpassing 2,000 index points at the start of February 2026, marking a significant 175% annual increase. This week’s chart shows substantial growth in tonne-miles demand (available now in the TSOP), particularly on the South Africa-to-China route, which has grown by 60% since September 2025. One big risk to the market is China’s outlook for steel demand. In early February 2026, several electric-arc furnaces were planned to undergo maintenance work that could temporarily curb steel and raw material flow. Iron ore prices have remained under pressure, with futures in China hovering around CNY 780–790 per tonne in early February 2026, after recent declines driven by rising port inventories, ample seaborne supply, and slowing construction activity. Iron ore stocks at major Chinese ports have continued to climb as steel mills complete pre-holiday restocking and demand softens ahead of the Lunar New Year. Iron ore inventories at major Chinese port cities saw a weekly increase of 1.16%, based on Steelhome data published on January 30. Meanwhile, China’s official manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3 in January, signaling a contraction in factory activity, while the non-manufacturing sector slipped just below expansion, reinforcing concerns over near-term steel demand. FREIGHT MARKET OVERVIEW The Baltic Dry Index, while showing an early February dip, continued to hover above the levels observed in the two years prior. Capesize | Firmer The Capesize market experienced a strong rally, with the Tubarao to Qingdao rate climbing to nearly $26/ton before easing to $25/ton, yet sentiment remains 44% firmer than a year ago. An upward trend is also mirrored in the Saldanha Bay-Qingdao route, where rates have edged up to $18/ton, though the route reached a higher peak of $20/ton in early December. February’s improved sentiment provides near-term support for Capesize prospects, though uncertainty around Chinese steel demand persists. PANAMAX | Firmer Robust Atlantic grain demand is currently bolstering Panamax rates for voyages from both the US Gulf (USG) and Santos to Qingdao. The USG-Qingdao route, in particular, saw rates with a $50/ton premium in early February, marking a 24% year-over-year increase. This favorable market momentum can be attributed in part to China’s ongoing purchases of U.S. grain. Correspondingly, the Santos-Qingdao route is also experiencing substantial rate increases, nearing $40/ton. SUPRAMAX | Firmer The USG-to-Skaw-Passero route has seen a strong recovery, with current rates around $22.6k/day, compared to the very weak levels recorded in February of the previous year, which were as low as $13k/day. HANDYSIZE | Firmer Atlantic firmness is evident not only in the larger vessel size segments but also in Handysize, with the USG trip to Skaw-Passero recording a slight excess of $17k/day, up 70% year over year. Capesize | C5 Firmer In addition to the notable firmness in the Atlantic market, the West Austral