The Commodities Feed: Oil climbs on Trump escalation threat in Oil & Companies News 07/04/2026 Energy – Oil climbs on Trump escalation threat Oil prices rose after US President Donald Trump signalled that an escalation of strikes on Iran could come as soon as Tuesday, renewing fears that oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz could remain constrained for longer. Brent traded above $111/bbl in Tuesday’s morning session, while WTI was around $116/bbl after it closed at its highest since June 2022. Physical market tightness remains evident, with the NYMEX WTI prompt spread widening to a backwardation of $16.19/bbl, compared with $8.22/bbl at the end of March. “The entire country can be taken out in one night, and that night might be tomorrow night,” Trump said at a press conference on Monday, referring to an ultimatum to Iran set to expire at 8:00pm on Tuesday. He added that free passage of oil through Hormuz must be part of any deal to end the war. Iran has reportedly told mediator Pakistan that it rejected a ceasefire proposal, demanding a permanent end to the war, sanctions relief, reconstruction efforts, and formal guarantees on safe passage through Hormuz. US allies, including Pakistan, Egypt and Turkey, are said to be pushing for a temporary ceasefire of around 45 days, as Trump extended his deadline for Tehran to reopen the strait. Traffic through Hormuz remains heavily reduced. 15 ships transited the strait with Iran’s permission over 24 hours (according to semi‑official Fars News), around 90% below pre‑conflict levels. Iran said on Saturday that Iraq would be exempt from its curbs, while Iraq’s state oil marketer SOMO said vessels carrying Iraqi crude are now able to transit the strait. Meanwhile, OPEC+ raised output targets by 206k b/d in May, a largely symbolic move as the war continues to constrain output and shipments from several key members. The increase marks a continuation of the gradual unwinding of the 1.65 mb/d cuts introduced in April 2023, following a pause in the first quarter. With the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut, higher quotas remain largely notional for producers, including Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, until the route reopens. The alliance’s next meeting is scheduled for 3 May 2026. Saudi Arabia also lifted official selling prices to Asia to a record premium, seeking $19.50 a barrel over regional benchmarks, highlighting tight near‑term supply conditions. Positioning data show speculative interest remains elevated. Money managers increased net longs in ICE Brent by 22,728 lots to 429,853 lots as of last Tuesday, marking the most bullish positioning since October 2018, as geopolitical risks and supply concerns continue to underpin sentiment in the oil market. According to US Department of Energy data, the US released around 1.5m barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) last week, as the Trump administration moved ahead with plans to tap the stockpile to ease supply tightness and curb price pressures linked to the Middle East conflict. This follows a coordinated commitment by the US and other IEA members to release 400m barrels after US and Israeli strikes on Iran disrupted flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The administration plans to release a total of 172m barrels over the next four months, potentially cutting SPR inventories to around 243.3m barrels, the lowest level since 1982. As of last Friday, the SPR stood at 413.3m barrels, comprising 153.7m barrels of sweet crude and 259.6m bar