Panamax Freight view – Indonesia Thermal Coal to India in International Shipping News 28/02/2026 This week’s focus highlights the softening trend in TSOP data flows for Indonesian thermal coal shipments to India, particularly within the Panamax vessel segment, toward the end of February. The deceleration in shipments coincided with adjustments to Indonesia’s reference coal pricing. The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (MEMR) lowered the mid-month Harga Batubara Acuan (HBA) for 6,322 kcal/kg GAR for the second half of February compared with the first-half assessment. Similar downward revisions were implemented across other calorific value bands under the HBA framework, reflecting a broader pricing adjustment during the month. These pricing developments occurred alongside ongoing regulatory discussions concerning Indonesia’s production quota framework (RKAB approvals) and export policy implementation, which together form part of the prevailing market backdrop. Seasonal factors may also have contributed to softer shipment momentum. February falls within Indonesia’s peak rainy season, and although no widespread force majeure events were reported, weather conditions across key producing regions remain an operational consideration when evaluating export performance. Firmer South African Flows and Indian Industrial Demand (+ 118 YoY) In contrast, South African thermal coal flows to India demonstrated comparatively firmer movement during the same period. The relative positioning of South African cargoes contributed to increased sourcing flexibility within the Indian market, particularly among industrial consumers Demand from Indian industrial sectors, including sponge iron and cement producers, continued to influence origin selection dynamics across industrial buyers. These segments often require specific calorific profiles and may adjust origin preferences in response to relative pricing dynamics and freight economics. All data and commentary reflect market conditions as of [Wednesday, 25 February 2026], unless otherwise stated. FREIGHT MARKET OVERVIEW The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) has maintained momentum from the previous week, stabilizing above the 2,100-point threshold despite a slight daily dip. This level represents a significant year-on-year increase of +100%. The upward trend is supported by the Panamax, Supramax, and Handysize segments, all of which recorded positive adjustments. While the Capesize segment shows early signs of a downward correction, index values remain strong above the 3,000-point mark. C5TC earnings (BCI 180) are in line with the previous week, holding below $25k/d. This reflects a 160% year-on-year increase, compared to the exceptional 290% annual surge recorded mid-week last week. FREIGHT ATLANTIC Capesize | Weaker C3 Tubarao–Qingdao / C17 Saldanha Bay–Qingdao The rate for the Tubarao to Qingdao route held a similar weakening sentiment to the previous week, with rates around $24/ton (+28% YoY). Similarly, the Saldanha Bay-Qingdao rates continued to be assessed around $17/mt (+36% YoY). PANAMAX | Firmer P7 USG–Qingdao grain ($/mt) / P8 Santos–Qingdao ($/mt) Rates for the USG-Qingdao and Santos-Qingdao routes continue to hold firm. The Santos-Qingdao rate was assessed mid-week above $40/ton, marking a 22% increase year-over-year. Notably, the USG-Qingdao rate has maintained a premium of around $50/ton (+19% YoY) since the beginning of February. SUPRAMAX | Weaker S4A US Gulf trip to Skaw-Passero Rates o