FX Daily: No quick fix in Daily Currencies Ratings 05/03/2026 USD: Ongoing uncertainty keeps the dollar bid After a day of reprieve yesterday, it looks as though risk assets will come under pressure again today. Investors may now be concluding that a swift resolution in the Middle East is unlikely, as reports suggesting an early negotiated settlement or US efforts to reopen the Straits of Hormuz amid an ongoing conflict appear premature. Crude oil remains near this week’s high at $84/85, and European natural gas has opened up 10% in early Europe. Adding to the rebound in gas has been reports that Russia could redirect its gas exports away from the EU. As ING’s commodities strategist, Warren Patterson discusses here, Russia represents 12% of the EU’s gas imports. The EU is trying to wean itself off Russian gas, but clearly events in the Middle East make such a move that much more arduous. In addition, we are starting to see more frequent headlines about the US private credit space and, in particular, the redemptions coming from business development company (BDCs). These are investment companies targeted at wealthy retail investors looking for alternative investment strategies. Funds raised are traditionally invested in SMEs. Some high-profile BDCs, such as those of Blue Owl and Blackstone, are currently seeing heavy redemptions as investors fear that their funds have been used to fund the AI boom for some of the software companies. Market focus is now on the size of any further redemptions, where BDCs get ‘gated’ or redemptions halted, and whether the BDCs need to sell illiquid investments to meet redemptions. Certainly a watch factor for markets and a very different financial risk to the more macro energy supply shock developing in the Middle East. China will also not be bailing out the global economy with renewed fiscal stimulus. Its latest economic plans focus on higher quality, but lower growth levels. And bond issuance plans will remain the same. So, no reprieve to procyclical or EM currencies from this news. Turning back to the US, last night’s release of the Fed’s Beige Book ahead of the 18 March FOMC meeting gave a picture. Growth seems mixed/subdued, as did the labour market. There was some suggestion that companies could be ready to pass on tariff costs to the consumer, but doubts about whether consumers, especially lower-income consumers, could handle it. For today in the US, we have Challenger job cuts, initial claims and import prices. The job cuts data should be in focus after a large rise in January. Given much uncertainty, we suspect the dollar can edge towards the top of recent ranges today. The market will remain transfixed by European natural gas prices and assuming that these push higher again today, DXY can probably edge back towards the 99.40/50 area. Chris Turner EUR: Little support in the short term EUR/USD remains fragile as energy turns bid again. Another soft day for equities, where Europe underperforms the US, could see EUR/USD back at the 1.1530/50 area. The only positive we see today would be if the US Challenger job cut data surprises on the upside again, and the dollar gets hit as concern grows about the US labour market. We have a few speakers from the ECB today, including Luis de Guindos, Olli Rehn and Christine Lagarde late in the day giving the Annual Global Risk Lecture. High energy prices have seen short-dated yields spike again today – but this is a global and not just a eurozone phenomenon. With gr