THINK Ahead: 2026 in 10 charts (Part one) in World Economy News 10/01/2026 Will tariffs fall in 2026? Sometime soon, the Supreme Court will rule on President Trump’s use of emergency powers to impose country‑level tariffs – and betting markets put the odds of him losing at 70–80%. Comments from the White House suggest it’s bracing itself for that too. If the Court strikes down the policy, “reciprocal” tariffs disappear, pulling the average tariff rate from roughly 16–17% (on paper) to below 10%, triggering a messy scramble for refund claims. What the President does next is crucial. The Venezuela intervention – risky with his Republican base – hints he may double down on policies central to his ideology. But if emergency powers are off the table, his tariff options become messier. A temporary fix would be a blanket 15% tariff on all imports, though it only lasts 150 days. More durable sector‑specific tariffs require lengthy investigations and, as Carsten noted in our 2026 outlook, would be damaging. Either way, the President will want to keep tariff revenue flowing if he hopes to sell Congress on his “tariff rebate checks”. Yet with approval ratings sliding ahead of the midterms – and with some food‑related levies already slashed – broader tariff cuts can’t be ruled out if political pressure builds, regardless of what the Court decides. I certainly wouldn’t bet against it… Will the Fed bow to political pressure and slash rates? It’s the battle of the Kevins – Trump’s pick for the next Fed Chair, due imminently. And interestingly, according to betting site PredictIt, former Fed governor Kevin Warsh has just narrowly overtaken Hassett (Director of the National Economic Council) as favourite. Whoever is picked, remember the Chair is only one vote among twelve. Past Trump appointees – Bowman and Waller – haven’t backed calls for drastic rate cuts, despite being in the running for Chair. And quietly, all twelve regional Fed presidents — who vote on a rotating basis — were reappointed last month without drama, despite fears a more political Fed might try to reappoint only the doves. Deeper rate cuts are not an automatic consequence of a new Fed Chair, but their appointment could herald a more activist central bank, James Knightley reckons. Still, I’m minded to say the Supreme Court case, starting 21 January, on whether the President can remove Governor Lisa Cook, will be more interesting. A ruling against Cook could theoretically open the door to broader firings and perhaps a far more political Fed. Otherwise, the Fed lineup won’t change again until 2028, when Chair Powell’s term ends, if he doesn’t voluntarily leave before. Will US unemployment keep rising? Remember the Sahm Rule? It says recessions typically follow when the three‑month average unemployment rate rises more than half a percentage point above its 12‑month low. Except in 2024, when a brief immigration-driven spike proved a false alarm. More workers, not all immediately finding work, meant temporarily higher unemployment rates. The same couldn’t be less true today. Net immigration is collapsing, from 2.8 million in 2024 to 0.4 million in 2025 and 0.6 million this year, according to the CBO. That may explain softer monthly payroll growth figures, but not rising unemployment. And signs of weakening labour demand are piling up. James Knightley notes that consumer surveys now show most people expect unemployment to rise, and recent payroll gains have been heavily concentrated in just