US–Japan trade deal indicates changing Asian energy order in Oil & Companies News 23/02/2026 Washington and Tokyo have unveiled the first three industrial projects in the US under a $550 billion deal struck last summer, where Japan exchanged infrastructure investment in the US for lower tariffs. On February 17, 2026, both governments announced phase one projects with a combined worth of $36 billion. The biggest of the projects is a $33 billion, 9.2 GW natural gas power plant in Ohio, led by Japan’s SoftBank Group, while Hitachi, Toshiba and Mitsubishi Electric have expressed interest. This project was described by President Donald Trump on his Truth Social platform as “the largest in history”. The other two projects are a $2.1 billion deepwater crude oil export facility in Texas and a $600 million synthetic industrial diamond factory in Georgia. In contrast, South Korea’s Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (MOTIE) on 10 February said the government convened a cross‑government meeting to manage escalating trade uncertainty with the US following President Donald Trump’s 26 January social media post of plans to raise tariffs on autos, lumber and pharmaceuticals to 25% from 15% as he claimed Seoul had failed to fully implement a trade agreement. Earlier comments this year by Finance Minister Koo Yun‑cheol indicated that a core component of the agreement – investments of $350 billion in US strategic‑sector projects – was unlikely to begin in 1H 2026 due to currency weakness and domestic economic conditions. Seoul says it is maintaining close contact with US Trade Representative (USTR) office to ensure non‑tariff provisions remain on track. No new details were provided on LNG‑related components of the broader trade framework, which could include investments in the proposed Alaska LNG project ENERGY CALCULATIONS The geography of the three Japanese projects is not accidental. Ohio and Georgia are crucial swing states for November’s midterm elections, Nikkei reported, and energy jobs in swing states are precisely the kind of visible, measurable policy outcome that the Trump administration wishes to deliver before midterms. Beyond domestic gains, the materialization of the Japan-US Strategic Investment Initiatives validates Trump’s tariff-as-leverage doctrine and potentially further accelerates the displacement of Russian and Middle Eastern LNG in Japan’s import mix. Russia’s position is the most directly threatened by the deal’s energy provisions. The Gazprom-operated Sakhalin Energy Sakhalin-2 LNG plant continues to operate, but Japanese investment into American gas assets is increasingly pointing to a withdrawal to it. Even without a formal exit, Japan’s increasing US LNG commitments reduce the strategic value of Sakhalin-2 as leverage. A Japanese exit from Sakhalin could also benefit the rival Chinese energy market with extra Russian supply at low prices while Japan scrambles for replacement. Japan currently accounts for roughly 18% of Russia’s total LNG exports, which would likely flow to China if Japan drops out, deepening Beijing’s energy partnership with Moscow and giving China additional control over a strategic energy commodity in the Indo-Pacific region. In a wider Japan energy security buildout, alternative supplies are coming into place. Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) concluded a memorandum of understanding (MoU) cooperation with Japanese buying consortium JERA and state‑owned QatarEnergy to enable additio