The Commodities Feed: Oil falls below $100 on optimism over Iran war in Oil & Companies News 01/04/2026 Energy – Oil falls on optimism over Iran war Oil prices fell after US President Trump signalled a potential end to the war with Iran. Brent slipped to below $100/bbl on Wednesday morning and WTI also traded below $100, after Trump said the US could leave Iran within two to three weeks, suggesting an agreement with Tehran may be reached but is not required for the conflict to end. The President is due to address the nation at 9pm ET today with an update on Iran. The Wall Street Journal also reported that the UAE has urged the US and European and Asian military powers to form a coalition to open the Strait of Hormuz by force. Meanwhile, China and Pakistan jointly called for an immediate ceasefire and for shipping through Hormuz to be safeguarded. On Tuesday, Trump warned allies to buy US jet fuel or risk losing access via the Strait, telling countries reliant on oil to “start learning how to fight for yourself.” Even if the Strait reopens, clearing the vessel backlog would take time, with production, exports and LNG flows normalising only gradually rather than immediately. Meanwhile, Saudi Aramco may raise the official selling price of Arab Light for Asian buyers next month, while key US crude grades are trading at their strongest premiums since the Covid‑19 period. In US inventory data, API figures showed crude stocks rose by 10.3mb last week, far above expectations for a 1.3mb build. Gasoline and distillate inventories fell by 3.2mb and 1.04mb, respectively, which should continue to support product cracks. The EIA report is due later today. In gas markets, European prices fell sharply, with TTF down more than 7.7% on Tuesday amid favourable weather forecasts and hopes of de-escalation in the Iran conflict. Strong wind generation could weigh on gas demand for power, while weaker industrial demand and a lighter maintenance season in Norway add to the bearish tone. EU gas storage levels have fallen to 28% as of 30 March, well below the five-year average of 41%, prompting the Energy Commissioner to urge early injections to avoid a late‑season supply crunch. Metals – Gold extends gains for third session Gold extended gains for a third session on Wednesday on hopes that the war in the Middle East may be nearing an end. Spot prices climbed above $4,700/oz, while equities rallied and the US dollar fell, after President Trump said he expected the US to end the war within weeks. Also, earlier this week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said long‑term US inflation expectations remain anchored and policy is “in a good place to wait and see”. Still, despite the rebound this week, gold’s almost 12% decline in March was its worst monthly performance since October 2008. Gold remains vulnerable to a broader liquidity squeeze and a firmer US dollar, though so far pullbacks have been met with buying rather than a loss of confidence. Upcoming data on central bank purchases will be key to gauging whether the early‑year slowdown in official sector buying marks a more sustained pause or merely a temporary breather, with recent Turkish sales yet to be fully reflected. In base metals, on the supply side, Chile posted its lowest monthly copper output in almost nine years, underscoring persistent structural constraints. February production fell to 378,554 tonnes, down 8.5% m/m and 4.8% y/y, according to INE data, as declining ore grades and underperformance at key mines