Europe gas refill risks rise; MS flags €90 TTF scenario in General Energy News 21/03/2026 Morgan Stanley warned that Europe faces a sharply higher risk of inadequate gas storage refills this summer after confirming long-term damage to two LNG mega-trains at Qatar’s Ras Laffan facility. In a new report, the bank has moved its “base case to Scenario 4 – forecasting TTF to reach €90/MWh over summer,” representing roughly 45% upside to the current forward curve. Analyst Charlotte Firkins said the damage amounts to a “~13 Mtpa or 3% supply shock to the global market for the next 3+ years,” adding that the event has “decoupled gas prices to an extent from what is happening in the Strait of Hormuz.” Morgan Stanley now expects a 15 Mt global LNG deficit in 2026. While fundamentals in Europe remain loose in the near term, the bank said “the risk to summer storage fill has intensified.” To secure enough gas, “TTF must price to pull spot cargos to Europe over summer,” with the next catalyst being “a rise in physical market tightness into summer.” Morgan Stanley cited the possibility of a “rush to buy LNG cargos over June/July,” warning that a scramble for supplies could push TTF to €90/MWh. It also flagged that European governments may need to “subsidise storage capacity bookings again to encourage storage fill.” The bank added that if the Ras Laffan outage extends into June or longer, prices could revisit “2022-style levels of €100–200/MWh or higher.” Morgan Stanley also raised its 2027 forecast to about €45/MWh, citing tighter-for-longer conditions due to lost Qatari volumes and delays at Qatar’s expansion projects. Source: Investing.com 2026-03-21 hellenicshippingnews... window.___gcfg = {lang: 'en-US'}; (function(w, d, s) { function go(){ var js, fjs = d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0], load = function(url, id) { if (d.getElementById(id)) {return;} js = d.createElement(s); js.src = url; js.id = id; fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js, fjs); }; load('//connect.facebook.net/en/all.js#xfbml=1', 'fbjssdk'); load('https://apis.google.com/js/plusone.js', 'gplus1js'); load('//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js', 'tweetjs'); } if (w.addEventListener) { w.addEventListener("load", go, false); } else if (w.attachEvent) { w.attachEvent("onload",go); } }(window, document, 'script')); tweet Share