Early in the month there were several days when no capesize fixtures were reported at all on the less liquid routes. On a number of days in January, brokers reported very thin trading for several ship sizes, with activity only really picking up around northwest Europe and the Med, and then only by the middle of the month. The Pacific has been described as “fragile” and “positional” on several occasions. Dry cargo brokers might have been forgiven for extending their holidays until the third week of January, so sluggish was the market. The Baltic Dry Index ended 2025 at 1,877 points, started January at 1,882 points and slid daily to a low of 1,532 on January 15. Since then it has staged a recovery to 1,803 points, led by the panamax market, itself led by the north Pacific round voyage. Increased Chinese trade with Canada has pushed the day rate on this 35 to 50-day round trip by 33% so far this year, though the quantum remains unspectacular at $12,899. The advent of a Canada-China trade deal, itself an enactment of the new Carney Weltanschauung, has lured Donald trump into threatening 100% tariffs on Canadian exports to the US. Politics, it would seem, will continue to disrupt markets in 2026. China, meanwhile, continues to slow steel production. Seasonal output downturns led to a fall in the dollar-per-tonne rate for iron ore shipped from Hedland to Qingdao from $10.10 back in mid-December to a low of $7.23 on January 15, despite steady activity from the mining companies, as tonnage lists increased. Per-day rates fell from $30,083 on December 19 to a low of $14,211 on January 15. Since then as tonnage has been soaked up, rates have recovered to $8.63 per tonne / $21,529 per day for a modern capesize burning 0.5% sulphur fuel. The TCE for a capesize shipping iron ore from Brazil to China fell from just shy of $30,000 per day on December 22, its last peak, to $17,386 on January 15 as per-tonne freight fell from $24.21 to $19.26 between those dates. A recovery since then in freight to $21.95 converts to a slight increase in freight to $22,027. These are really not bad numbers for the time of year. But the weak Chinese economic outlook and rising supply of bulkers give cause for concern as we head to Lunar New Year celebrations. Red ink has been liberally splashed around the supramax and ultramax freight markets in January. The S11 ultramax average is down 7% so far this year to $12,593 as of January 21 having averaged a few dollars short of $17,000 for December. The main culprit has been a collapse in the rate for voyages out of China. The trip to West Africa has lost 16%, falling to $9,500 per day. The trip via Indonesia for coal to unload in India has lost 12% falling to $10,064 per day via a low of $9,821 on January 19. The China to Indonesia and back coal run has lost 15% to sit at a miserable $7,706 per day. This time last year it was as low as $4,500 per day so one can blame seasonality rather than anything more fundamental. The Atlantic has fared slightly better with rates from the US Gulf to Europe adding 5% to reach a more favourable $22,979 per day on January 21. Handysize bulker freight rates have suffered their worst month for several years in January (from an owner’s perspective). The H7 average is down 13% to $10,698, but the damage has been in the Atlantic where a lengthening tonnage list has smashed the backhaul rate to south America by 26% in just three weeks, pushing it to $6,871 per day, while the backhaul to North Americ