On September 9, 2023, the Baltic Capesize Index hit a seasonal low of 997 points. From there it fizzed upwards to a peak of 3,485 points on October 9 before taking a breather then climbing to a peak of 6,582 points on December 5. This year, the seasonal low came earlier and was much higher, being 2,499 points on July 30. On September 9 the BCI was 3,404 points, peaking at 3,375 on September 11. By September 20, the BCI was at 3,235 points, still 20% higher than a month earlier. Will the market take off like it did last year? Brokers report that demand for capesizes remains firm, but there is always the nagging anxiety about Chinese economic activity and what that might do to iron ore import demand. So far this month, the iron ore freight market has shrugged off such worries. Demand in China for Brazilian ore has been robust, such that the daily TCE for the C3 route between the two nations rose by a bountiful 25% to $29,697 on September 20, having breached $30,487 the previous day. Australian miners are bullish, with high production targets driving demand and earnings on the capesize C5 route to China. The daily TCE was $31,859 on September 20, up 17% over the previous 30 days. These numbers seem likely to go higher with charterers already covering mid-October dates for cargoes from both Brazil and Australia. As Australian export coal prices fell from $150 in mid-August to $140 in mid-September, Chinese buyers spent the savings on freight, with kamsarmax TCEs on a South China- Indonesia / Australia round trip increasing by about 11% over the same period to sit at $13,102 per day for the Indonesia run as of September 20. But on other panamax routes, September has offered fewer rewards. A China to Europe backhaul added 2% to $6,019 per day while a China to west coast North America round voyage added 9% on panamax and 8% on kamsarmax over the 30 days to September 20 to sit at $12,716 and $14,018 respectively. In the Atlantic, demand firmed up In the second half of September to push round voyages staring in north-west Europe over $10,000 a day on September 18 for the first time in a month, though the voyage out from Europe to NE Asia lost 9% over the month to September 20 to land at $23,350, via a low of $20,036 on September 10. Rates from North and South America to Asia remain flat, averaging $24,986 from Mississippi and $14,946 from Santos. A Chinese soybean glut is holding down grain shipment costs from the USG, as is a political response in China, where the Beijing government has asked traders to buy lower volumes of imported grains to support local prices, contrary to the popular stockpiling narrative. As the capesize market is no longer a guide to panamax fortunes, owners of these ships may have to wait for cold weather in coal-burning countries to warm up the freight market. The Baltic Exchange has now completed its switchover from reporting freight rates for 58,00 dwt supramax ships to 63,000 dwt ultramax vessels (looks like a geared panamax to this greybeard…). Historical comparisons of freight rates thus require some sleight of hand with the old slide rule. But the gist is similar to the panamax narrative. Demand is steady to firm, with supply well balanced and the Pacific generally a happier hunting ground than the Atlantic. Rates for a North China to Australia round voyage on the new 63,000 dwt reference vessel added 9% in 30 days to September 20 to reach a comforting $15,788 per day, while those from south China to Indonesia and