Is Aframax return to glory sustainable? in International Shipping News 03/03/2026 Aframax mainstream tonne-miles demand has set seasonal highs so far in 2026, with freight rates striking multi-year highs. However, beneath the headline strength, a nuanced vessel-supply-side picture hints that net fleet growth is set to accelerate this year, despite the anticipated sanctions pull into the dark fleet. Plus, the composition of demand is shifting in ways that leave the segment more exposed to geopolitical mood swings, and rising competition from their larger counterparts over the next few quarters. Supply fundamentals: Net fleet growth despite dark logistics drain A key supply-side swing factor for Aframax/LR2 market segment this year is the extent that dark fleet recruitment, particularly for Russia’s fleet, can offset the heavy delivery schedule of 75 Aframax/LR2s (Braemar). Russia’s crude export programme faces intensifying logistical headwinds, amplifying the pull on compliant tonnage. As India cuts back on sanctioned grades, China has become the dominant outlet. Re-routing Russia West cargoes to China would extend round-trip voyage durations by ~30 days versus India, demanding more tonnage to sustain the same monthly liftings. Plus, the incoming EU Maritime Ban will further exacerbate this pressure, as barring EU-operators would slash ~45% of DWT from Russia’s active non-sanctioned Aframax and Suezmax fleet. As of February 26, three non-sanctioned VLCCs and one Suezmax formerly in Venezuela’s dark fleet have sought employment lifting Russian sanctioned crude cargoes post-US intervention in January. This is a strong indicator that Russia’s dark fleet expansion strategy could encompass the absorption of non-sanctioned tankers in the former Venezuela dark fleet. In a scenario analysis modelling the recruitment of all 14 Aframaxes and 12 Suezmaxes, Russia would require an incremental 24 Aframaxes. On the contrary, in a scenario of no Venezuela absorption, 56 incremental Aframaxes would be required to keep Russian export flowing. Now, with Russia’s proven track record of recruiting ex-Venezuela VLCCs into its fleet, the incremental Aframax requirement would likely edge lower. This sets up a net fleet supply growth in the Aframax/LR2 market segments this year, with orderbook-to-mainstream fleet ratio at 8%, and deliveries weighted towards first half of 2026. Plus, average scrapping age for Aframax/LR2s stood at 24 years old in 2025, and so far in 2026, has risen to 27 years old (Braemar). Yet, only 30 non-sanctioned Aframax/LR2s are aged 24+, representing ~3% of global active, non-sanctioned fleet – suggesting that scrapping acceleration would unlikely materially offset incoming supply either. Russia’s pull for dark fleet logistics, while persistent, now has a more accessible outlet: non-sanctioned, ex-Venezuela tonnage already active in sanctioned crude trade – therefore plugging the drain from mainstream fleet. Given this, mainstream Aframax tonnage set to be ‘lost’ to dark logistics this year would unlikely outpace the 75 Aframax/LR deliveries due this year. Plus, LR2s introduce a factor of elastic supply to the Aframax segment – as the record dirtying-up trend of LR2s in 2025 illustrates a degree of flexibility demonstrated by owners to exploit pockets of Aframax strength in the crude/DPP trades. (Read more on LR outlook). With the backdrop of weakening clean LR performance, high Aframax/LR2 deliveries would likely seek employment in dirt