Confusion reigns supreme on day 25 of the Hormuz shipping crisis, with president Donald Trump yesterday stating that the US and Iran are in “very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution” to the war in the Middle East, and that the US will pause all military strikes against Iranian energy assets for a five-day period – with oil prices falling hard and tanker equities experiencing a relief as a consequence. Iran denied that such talks have taken place and the situation remains highly uncertain. “Trump treats facts the way a shipbroker treats a vessel description — more of a starting point for negotiation than a binding commitment,” one maritime security analyst told Splash on condition of anonymity. “If hostilities were to end tomorrow, and assuming no more damage to energy infrastructure, we suggest that it would take up to two months for the logistical situation to return to normal and this period of readjustment will continue to lengthen assuming that the conflict continues into April,” analysts at broker BRS suggested. Trump treats facts the way a shipbroker treats a vessel description Experts at maritime analytics platform Windward explained in an update that the Strait of Hormuz is not fully closed, but access is tightly controlled. “Transit is being granted selectively, based on cargo type, destination, and geopolitical alignment, while high-risk and deceptive actors continue to operate within the same constrained environment,” Windward observed. The result is what Windward described as a “managed corridor” rather than an open waterway, where movement continues, but only under defined and non-transparent conditions. This is a test of how much disruption the tanker market can absorb before its own fundamentals weaken Meanwhile, in New York, United Nations Security Council members are expected this week to begin negotiations on a draft resolution circulated by Bahrain that could authorise the use of force to protect shipping in the strait. With the situation in and around the Strait of Hormuz remaining off-limits for most vessels, analysts at Greek broker warned that while the tanker market remains headline-strong it is in effect fundamentally fragile. “The longer Hormuz stays effectively closed, the more the conversation will shift from freight spikes to demand destruction and utilisation losses. In that sense, this is no longer just a crisis of supply — it is a test of how much disruption the tanker market can absorb before its own fundamentals begin to weaken,” Xclusiv argued in its latest weekly report. googletag.cmd.push(function() { googletag.display('div-gpt-ad-1_95_0_1_2'); }); TagsIran United States