Europe faces jet fuel supply risk despite temporary demand reprieve in Oil & Companies News 21/05/2026 Europe’s jet fuel supply crisis may have been postponed rather than averted, with underlying structural tightness likely to persist even if Middle East tensions ease, according to analysts at S&P Global Energy CERA. Jet fuel cracks have eased in recent weeks and some aviation industry participants have become more relaxed about the threat to supply, but the respite stems largely from demand destruction through flight cancellations rather than any fundamental improvement in supply, James Simpson, global aviation lead at CERA, said May 15, following the International Air Transport Association’s Aviation Energy Forum in Paris. The US Gulf Coast has replaced about half of the volumes previously flowing from the Strait of Hormuz to Europe, but the sustainability of those flows faces growing doubt as the US driving season approaches, Simpson said. US jet fuel exports to Europe stood at 131,000 barrels/day in April, while there were no exports from the Persian Gulf, data from S&P Global Commodities at Sea(opens in a new tab) showed May 18. In April 2025, exports from the Persian Gulf to Europe were 239,000 b/d, while the US sent nothing that month and 21,000 b/d through the year. “Every US refinery has been in jet max mode because all the money is in making jet,” Simpson said. As a result, gasoline stocks are now low, he said. US gasoline stocks likely declined 4.78 million barrels to about 215 million barrels, analysts surveyed by Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, said May 11, putting stocks at a five-month low and more than 6% below average for this time of year. Platts assessed jet fuel cargoes on a CIF basis in Northwest Europe versus Dated Brent at $57.76/b May 15, 68% higher than Feb. 27 before the Middle East war broke out and against a five-year average of $26.79/b. The timing presents a critical challenge. US gasoline demand typically surges 10%