In the semiarticulate language of social media, “what oil market doing?” has been the question to answer in the last month. The latest available stats say that global oil production in July was up 239,000 barrels per day, with non-OPEC additions of 262,000 barrels per day offsetting OPEC reductions of 23,000 barrels per day. OPEC+ has delayed the end of its production caps by two months to December this year. Meanwhile the EIA, IEA and OPEC have all reduced their oil demand forecasts for 2024 by around 200,000 barrels per day. Oil prices are down, with WTI poised to go below $70 a barrel if current conditions continue. Petroleum futures markets are the most bearish they have been since 2011 as traders hold a net short position in Brent. This is not necessarily bad news for crude oil or oil products tankers. Low commodity prices may reflect weak demand but can also prompt inventory additions. People returning to their desks after August holidays also added activity to the freight markets. The Baltic VLCC average responded by going back above $30,000 a day on September 9, having dipped into the mid-20s around Labor Day. As of September 19, it stood at $38,664, some 1% higher than its month-earlier level. VLCC TCEs from the US to China are 3% up on their month ago level at $35,467 while from the Middle East to China the TCE is flat at $39,068. More importantly, the downward trend in freight markets that began in May has been reversed. Owners are now anticipating a strong Q4 as traditional seasonality would also indicate. For now, just don’t look at the weak macro data coming from China and the US. Low commodity prices may reflect weak demand but can also prompt inventory additions Owners of suezmaxes have enjoyed September so far, with the Baltic suezmax TCE average adding 14% over the 30 days to September 19, reaching $27,745 after bottoming out at $22,369 on August 13. WAF to UKC added 9% over 30 days to September 19, reaching $27,540, while Mid East to Med rates added 22% to reach a tempting $41,237. But with the Houthis still menacing all comers, surely nobody in their right mind will currently send a suezmax through the Suez Canal? Aframax markets have been mixed. As US Gulf refineries closed for the seasonal deluge, rates from the region to ARA came off by 36% over the month to September 19, languishing at $17,005 on September 19. Weak Eurozone economic activity led to a 13% fall in TD7 rates from the North Sea to Germany; they sat at $$21,507 on September 20. Southern European demand was also lacklustre and cross-Med afra rates lost 11% in the 30 days to September 19 to end up at $24,298. The weakness on these routes was partially offset by more UK demand for North Sea cargoes, pushing TD6 rates (North Sea – UK) up by 19% to $27,949 on September 19. In Asia, rates from Singapore to Australia lost 4% over the month, falling to $26,961 on September 20, while the TCE from Kuwait to Singapore lost 3% to reach $31,130. If these levels are to be seasonal lows from which the market would usually double in Q4, then owners will have much to celebrate at the end of the year. Let’s hope cheap petrol makes drivers’ right feet heavier around the world in the coming weeks. Product tanker owners will agree with that sentiment after the clean freight market appears to have touched seasonal bottom, as it were. As of September 19 the Baltic Clean Tanker Index was up 3% on its month-earlier level at 638 points, though this hid some weird variability.