Tanker Market: Is Oversupply Really an Issue? in Hellenic Shipping News 11/02/2026 Could the tanker market be headed for an oversupply issue? In its latest weekly report, shipbroker Xclusiv said that “the renewed acceleration in tanker newbuilding activity has once again brought the question of oversupply to the forefront of market discussions, particularly as deliveries are set to rise sharply over the next two years. In 2026 and 2027 alone, around 342 and 368 tankers respectively are expected to be added to the active tanker fleet, marking the highest annual additions since 2009, when 406 vessels entered service at the peak of the last major supply cycle. At first glance, these figures inevitably raise concerns that the market may be heading towards another period of excessive fleet growth. However, a closer examination of delivery patterns, fleet age profiles and segment-specific dynamics suggests that the risk is more nuanced than the headline numbers imply”. Source: Xclusiv According to Xclusiv, “a breakdown of tanker deliveries on a rolling four-year basis since 2008 shows that the 2025–2028 period will mark one of the strongest delivery phases of the past two decades across several core segments. MR2, Aframax/LR2 and Suezmax tankers are all set to record their highest four-year intake since the 2008–2011 cycle, highlighting a clear acceleration in newbuilding momentum. However, the scale of the upcoming inflow remains meaningfully below the peaks of the last super-cycle. MR2 deliveries in 2025–2028 are projected to be around 14% lower than the 2008–2011 highs, while Aframax/LR2 additions trail their historical peak by roughly 6%. Suezmax deliveries, on the other hand, are expected to broadly match their previous maximum levels, pointing to a more pronounced recovery in this segment. The VLCC sector follows with a lag, peaking in the 2026–2029 window, yet deliveries are forecast to remain materially below the 2019–2022 super-cycle, underlining that even in the largest crude carrier class, fleet growth is unlikely to revisit the excesses of the most recent expansion phase. Overall, while the upcoming delivery wave is clearly elevated by post-2012 standards, it still falls short of prior super-cycle extremes, suggesting that the real risk for the tanker fleet will depend less on headline orderbook growth and more on demand durability and the pace of scrapping in the years ahead”. Meanwhile, “this assessment is further supported by the projected age profile of the tanker fleet in 2028, a year with limited shipyard availability, where incoming tonnage appears largely replacement-driven. In MR2, Aframax/LR2 and Suezmax sectors, the expected 0–5 year-old cohort, incorporating vessels delivered in 2024–2025 and those scheduled over the following two years, broadly matches or exceeds the 21+ year-old fleet, with replacement ratios of 106%, 100% and 110% respectively, even under the conservative assumption of zero scrapping. This indicates that the bulk of upcoming deliveries is set to offset ageing tonnage rather than add net capacity to the active fleet, reinforcing the view that the current newbuilding appetite does not pose a structural supply risk at least through 2028. By contrast, the VLCC segment stands out, with a replacement ratio of around 81%, suggesting that ageing capacity is not yet fully covered by scheduled additions and leaving room for further newbuilding orders without materially increasing oversupply risk”, Xclusiv sai