Ceasefire pulls oil off war highs, but physical markets need time to rebalance in Oil & Companies News 10/04/2026 The two-week US-Iran ceasefire announced overnight has taken the panic premium out of oil – but not the full risk premium. Prices are not snapping back to pre-war levels due to the scale of disruption and backlog-clearing mechanisms that will take some time to normalize. Futures have moved and, as a result, Rystad Energy has reduced its average Brent price from $97 to average $87 for 2026. However, the tightness in the physical barrels is unlikely to be cleared anytime soon. ‘’Oil plunged below US$100 per barrel after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, expected to halt military strikes in exchange for Tehran reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Refiners should use this window to resume more opportunistic buying. However, the transition period itself could present the next challenge. If refiners delay purchases in anticipation of further price declines while physical flows remain constrained, product tightness could worsen even amid de-escalation. The ceasefire has shifted market rationale, allowing futures to reset quickly as the probability of sustained disruption declines. Yet this adjustment in futures does not translate into an immediate return to pre-conflict conditions, which is reflected in the relative strength of the physical market. What is being observed, both in reporting and in physical premiums, is not a full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz but rather a formalization of existing conditions, where passage remains contingent on coordination with Iran’s armed forces and subject to technical constraints’’ Janiv Shah, Vice President, Commodity Markets – Oil, Rystad Energy It’s also been rumored that both Iran and Oman are permitted to charge fees under the two-week ceasefire. This is the toll booth that traders had already begun to factor in: selective access, fee-based transit, Iran retaining control over who moves and who does not – but now with a diplomatic wrapper around it. Tanker owners, insurers and crews need evidence that risk has actually reduced, not just paused. Even within this two-week window, the expectation is that activity will restart in a measured manner rather than all at once. This exacerbates one of the most important near-term market features: the dislocation between futures and physicals.In this ceasefire environment, paper markets reprice the relief almost instantly, while physical indicators and differentials still reflect caution.The Brent flat price has fallen, but prompt physical differentials are likely to remain sticky, tanker rates stay elevated, and sour crude buyers continue to pay up for security of limited global supply away from the Gulf. This goes to show that the perceived geopolitical risk can ease faster than operational risk. Looking ahead The market stills needs to watch for signs of a repricing of the longer-duration scenarios. As the ceasefire proposal details are digested and understood, the main triggers would be only Iranian-friendly ships allowed to transit, weaker exporter loading reliability, or evidence that insurers and shipowners still view Gulf transit as unsafe. Sentiment of shipowners is critical in the current situation, whereby the risks of damage to vessels from underwater mines will be at the forefront of operators’ minds. In an escalation scenario, futures would react first and most violently because they are pricing probability, optionality and