FX Daily: Mixed data fails to give direction in Daily Currencies Ratings 08/01/2026 USD: Ignoring lower oil prices US data was very mixed yesterday and failed to provide a new directional catalyst for the dollar after the Venezuelan events. ADP was close to consensus at 41k, and while their predictive power for official payrolls is limited, it may be fueling expectations that Friday’s numbers won’t be enough to price in more Fed easing for now. This may put a floor under the dollar today. That said, the other job release yesterday – November’s job openings – was quite soft and offset the strong ISM services print. Today, the main data release in the US is Challenger’s data on job cuts, alongside the weekly jobless claims, which surprised on the downside at the end of December. Interestingly, the dollar has held well against a backdrop of falling oil prices, with the commodities markets seemingly taking Trump’s plans for Venezuelan oil supply more seriously. Once the NFP risk event is cleared, this oil softness could weigh on the dollar and prevent it from rallying much further despite positive seasonality. Remember that the US Supreme Court will rule on tariffs tomorrow. Consensus is leaning towards a negative ruling, which could prompt some USD strengthening. That’s because the tariff impact has been more marked on the jobs market than on inflation, and the reaction could see some hawkish repricing in the Fed curve. We’ll discuss the Supreme Court ruling and its implications in a webinar on Monday, 12 January. Sign-up here. Francesco Pesole EUR: Keeping an eye on geopolitcs Despite sub-consensus German CPI, euro area figures were in line with the 2.0% consensus. As discussed yesterday, even a small undershooting wouldn’t have triggered material dovish repricing given the ECB’s hawkish communication. The focus for the euro at this stage is on geopolitics, looking at both the West (Greenland) and the East (Ukraine). On the former, the US and Denmark will meet next week to discuss Greenland, where the White House is reportedly considering business deals to gain a footprint on the island. The Trump administration has nevertheless kept the threat of military intervention as a possibility, although there is little priced in at this stage. EUR/DKK has been trading on the strong side but is only some 0.15% above the 7.460 peg level. The Danish central bank allows +/- 2.25%, even if deviations are generally well below 0.5%. It is possible that the central bank is buying DKK: in 2019-20, FX interventions were deployed around these spot levels. A decisive break above 7.4740 – a level well defended in 2019-20 – would be a slightly more worrying signal. On Ukraine, the UK and France have agreed to send troops if a peace deal is agreed. So far, the euro has remained largely unreactive to the small progress being made. We retain a short-term neutral view on EUR/USD, with 1.170 as a target. Strong German factory orders this morning don’t seem to be moving the needle in the spot. Francesco Pesole SEK: Inflation undershooting not an issue for the krona EUR/SEK is trading on the strong side this morning after sub-consensus inflation in Sweden. Headline CPIF slowed from 2.3% to 2.1% while the core measure excluding energy was down to 2.3% from 2.4% despite expectations for an acceleration in December. But we don’t think this print materially changes the outlook for the Riksbank or the krona. The chances of a hike in late 2026 were low anyway in our view,