After the Iran war, how fast could global trade recover? in International Shipping News 08/04/2026 The Iran war could end soon or drag on for much longer. Whenever the Strait of Hormuz is reopened, the true test will be how quickly energy, fertilizer and other supply chains can bounce back. Those looking for clear answers about when the Iran war will end have repeatedly been left disappointed. In the latest twist, US President Donald Trump said the conflict could end within “two or three weeks” and that the US could withdraw even if a peace deal is not reached. That comes after repeated mixed messaging. He has previously said negotiations were progressing, with a ceasefire deal near at hand, before doubling down on threats to bomb Iranian energy and manufacturing facilities. Iran, meanwhile, is allowing a small number of ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, while denying that any real ceasefire talks are taking place. Trump’s apparent enthusiasm for ending the conflict, deal or no deal, suggests he is well aware of the damage the conflict has wrought so far on the global economy. Most experts agree on one key point: the longer this conflict goes on, the more devastating its impact will be on the world’s energy supplies, inflation and economic stability. Every extra week of disruption raises costs for consumers and businesses while growth slows. The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, part of the US central bank system, predicted earlier this month that a three-month or longer closure of the strait would cause global GDP growth to slow by an annualized 2.9% in the second quarter of the year. Whenever Hormuz — the chokepoint for 20% of global oil trade — does reopen, the speed at which oil and gas production and tanker traffic resumes will shape how fast the global economy can recover. Securing the Strait of Hormuz Shipping firms are unlikely to resume crossings through the strategic waterway until insurance premiums decline meaningfully and a credible multinational naval escort operation is in place. This could potentially involve US Navy warships, air patrols and mine-clearing vessels. European NATO allies, including Germany, France and the United Kingdom, have signaled a willingness to join the patrols once the fighting has stopped. Japan, Australia, South Korea, Canada, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain are also likely to participate. Mine-clearing in the strait alone could take about two weeks, Jennifer Parker, adjunct professor at the University of Western Australia Defense and Security Institute, told Bloomberg. Once Hormuz is considered safe for navigation, the backlog of around 1,900 stranded vessels — half of them carrying oil, LNG or other chemicals — could be cleared within days to a few weeks, provided that crew shortages can be resolved. “At this point, it’s essentially a race to market,” Aditya Saraswat, research director (Middle East & North Africa) at the Norway-based analytics firm Rystad Energy, told DW. He added that clearing the Hormuz backlog would give Gulf producers “a month of buffer” to ramp up production. Logistical issues will remain, however. Before the war, around 130 to 140 vessels per day moved through Hormuz, but that flow will likely be significantly slower as long as naval patrols are required. Gradual restart of oil and gas production As well as reopening Hormuz, Gulf producers would need assurances that the security situation has stabilized across their oil and gas facilities. Even with a swift p