AFP Insight: To stay or not to stay? in International Shipping News 10/03/2026 As we enter another day of the conflict, one thing is becoming increasingly clear: the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz remains highly uncertain. Transit activity through the strait is extremely limited (fewer than 15 transits), while vessels continue to gather on the eastern side of the passage. 35 ballast VLCCs are currently waiting in the Eastern side of the Hormuz and 22 more are heading towards the Gulf, located in the India West Coast, slowly awaiting for a resolution of the strait crisis. As the number of tonnage without a clear fixture coverage increases (50% w-o-w), a handful of VLCC operators are contemplating or have started diverting, either away from the MEG or changing their course far earlier, offshore Sri Lanka. With the situation at Hormuz remaining at a standstill, VLCC operators are increasingly faced with a decision: Should they remain on course toward the MEG in the hope that the strait reopens soon, or divert toward alternative markets before the waiting time and bunker costs begin to erode potential earnings? *Assumptions take into account a 10-yr old VLCC eco tanker – data as of 5 March – powered by Anywhere Freight Pricing Recent market results highlight an interesting development. The difference in daily earnings between a vessel performing a round voyage and one waiting—some for almost a week now—outside the Strait of Hormuz has widened significantly. This illustrates how sharply Red Sea freight rates have increased, comparative to voyage distance making the incremental bunker cost less relevant. Interestingly Yanbu (Red Sea) quotes are currently surpassing benchmark assessments from the West of Hormuz. This underpins the illiquidity of enquiries past Hormuz as well as the challenges in gauging the insurance premia. The lucrative opportunities in the Red Sea are making operators in the East of Hormuz reluctant to divert, as doing so would mean leaving potential earnings of up to $300,000 per day on the table. However, they are increasingly forced to reconsider as more vessels are ballasting from Asia. These ships could achieve similar returns but at cheaper rates, allowing them to compete more aggressively for cargoes in the Red Sea. While diverting to other regions still offers attractive returns for VLCC operators stranded in the MEG, recent developments could provide downside risks. Following the announcement of a 30-day waiver allowing India to import Russian crude, we could see India’s imports potentially return to—or even exceed—historical levels.This shift could redirect trade demand away from mainstream tankers and toward the shadow fleet. At the same time, Chinese state-run refiners may return to purchasing ESPO grades, although this alone may not be sufficient to meet local jet fuel demand. China has already increased imports of Brazilian medium-sweet grades since December, a trend that could continue in the near term. Similarly, Chinese buyers may turn to TMX cargoes on Aframaxes to maintain their preferred crude blend, while also drawing down some strategic petroleum reserves (SPR) to support domestic production. These adjustments could further shift demand away from VLCC employment. Source: Vortexa 2026-03-10 hellenicshippingnews... window.___gcfg = {lang: 'en-US'}; (function(w, d, s) { function go(){ var js, fjs = d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0], load = function(url, id) { if (d.getElementById(id)) {return;} js = d.creat