As the conflict in the Middle East spreads, as North Korea joins in with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and as China practices a naval blockade of Taiwan, you can find plenty of social media strategists to inform you that World War Three has already begun, but that the West is too fixated on the US presidential election to notice. Gold prices are flying, bond yields are up and recessionary indicators abound. The global oil market appears remarkably sanguine in this context. Oil prices ended September (using WTI as an example) at $68.17 and briefly leapt to $77.14 as Israel went into Lebanon. WTI slid back to $68.69 on October 18 before rallying to $71.78 on October 25. The OPEC basket price was down to $74.20 on that date, well below the Saudi Arabians’ preferred level to pay for social programmes, which some news agencies report are being cut. There has then been plenty of noise around the oil price signal for traders to leverage and the tanker freight market has been commensurately volatile in the last 30 days. On September 26, VLCC average earnings (basis the Baltic Exchange) stood at $34,034 per day. From there they climbed to $42,357 on October 7, then slid to $36,106 on October 14, rose again to $39,205 on October 23 before backing off to $37,869 on October 25. On the US to China voyage, rates varied between around $34,500 and $45,000 in the last month, which has meant that owners could gross $350,000 more or less for the same maximum 35 day voyage depending on which date their ship was fixed. The recent advances in VLCC TCEs are said to be due to increased Indian use of the ship to import crude oil from the Atlantic, especially the US Gulf. The Baltic Dirty Tanker Index rose vertically in early October and then stabilised Suezmaxes are also benefiting from increased oil output in the Americas, particularly from Brazil, Guyana and Venezuela. The Baltic Exchange’s new Guyana to ARA suezmax voyage rating returned a TCE of $25,686 on average in September but $36,496 for October to date. In the Med, suezmaxes have weathered all kinds of volatility this year but the September average TCE of $39,926 was outperformed by $44,859 for the first 25 days of October. Rising European demand (a seasonal effect) for West African crude has pushed up average daily TCEs on WAF to Western Europe voyages from a low of $22,791 on September 26 to $37,201 on October 25. Chinese oil demand may be levelling off as its EV sales accelerate, but on this evidence, suezmax owners can ask, who needs China? Aframax earnings averaged $21,920 in September but $38,565 in October to date, via a low of $23,031 on September 10 and a peak of $42,324 on October 16. As of October 25 they stood at $39,679. Aframaxes enjoyed October in the Med as Libyan oil came back on stream, pushing daily TCEs up to a peak of $53,488 on October 16. This was the best return for any aframax route worldwide (unsanctioned route, that is…) with Asian earnings lagging by as much as $20,000 per day. For instance, Kuwait to Singapore voyages peaked at $35,542 on October 18 and average $32,936 for the month so far after $30,716 in September. Earnings on the Singapore to Australia voyage averaged $26,970 for September and rose smartly to average $32,868 in October to date. But compare the North Sea to UK voyage TCE; it averaged $21,855 in September but $36,977 in October to date with rates now comfortably over $42,000 per day, for a standard ship, on a mature market, in a safe part of the world. Wh