South America weather risk puts global corn and soybean supply on edge in Freight News 03/03/2026 Brazil’s soybean harvest is approximately 25% complete, broadly in line with the five-year national average. Progress has been slowed in Goiás and Mato Grosso do Sul due to heavier-than-usual February rainfall, but these aren’t the country’s largest producing areas, so the impact on the initial export pace is limited. The overall 2025-26 crop is still expected to reach around 180 million tonnes – in line with the USDA’s February estimate of 182 million tonnes, and a new record, driven by acreage expansion in central and northern Brazil rather than higher yields. The more significant concern is in the south, particularly Rio Grande do Sul, where below-average rainfall has raised questions around yield potential for crops still in their pod-fill and reproductive phases. On exports, Brazil is pricing very competitively – Paranaguá offers are currently around $0.80 to $1.00 per bushel below US Gulf values through at least May delivery, supporting a strong and prolonged export campaign in 2025-26. Argentina: Crop in a critical window as dryness deepens What started as a promising season for Argentina has turned more cautious. Very good rainfall in August and September gave way to a lull in December, and January brought a significant rainfall deficit – particularly across the Pampas region, which covers parts of southern Córdoba, southern Santa Fe, and northern Buenos Aires. As a result, soil moisture reserves are now very limited, and both the early and late corn and soybean crops are moving through their reproductive phases – the period when yield potential is most sensitive to adverse weather. Some near-term rainfall is expected this week and next, but conditions are forecast to turn warmer and drier in the second half of February and into early March, which is adding a risk premium to CBOT pricing. Without sustained precipitation, the optimistic yield assumptions underpinning current production and export forecasts will likely need to be revised lower. Argentine soybeans: Exports normalizing after an unusual 2024-25 Argentina’s soybean export campaign in 2024-25 was unusually high – a result of two specific factors that are unlikely to repeat. First, Argentina temporarily cut export taxes to 0% in September, which incentivized the export of whole soybeans rather than processed meal and oil, reversing the usual tax structure that favors domestic crushing. Second, US-China trade tensions led China to seek alternative origins, with Argentina a clear beneficiary. Both of those tailwinds are gone. Export taxes have reverted to their standard structure, and the crop is smaller this year – around 48 million tonnes – partly because farmers planted more corn in 2025-26 following favorable agronomic conditions in August, which reduced soybean acreage. The 2025-26 campaign is expected to return closer to historical averages. Argentine corn: Recovery expected, weather permitting Argentina’s corn export campaign in 2024-25 underperformed, with a notable drop-off once the US crop came online. The 2025-26 outlook is more positive – but it is contingent on the weather. Current projections assume average or above-average yields, which would allow Argentina to return to a more normal export campaign. At current FOB offers, Argentina is pricing competitively against the US across Southeast Asia, East Asia, and North Africa. However, if crop conditions continue