TRADE REVIEW: China trade curb relief, Middle East diversions lift Q2 Asia iron ore supply in Commodity News 12/05/2026 This report is part of the S&P Global Energy Metals Trade Review series, where we dig through datasets and digest some of the key trends in iron ore, metallurgical coal, copper, alumina, cobalt, lithium, nickel and steel and scrap. We also explore what the next few months could bring, from supply and demand shifts to new arbitrages and quality spread fluctuations. China’s lifting of trade curbs on BHP products and the diversion of high‑grade concentrates from the Middle East amid the conflict are expected to boost seaborne iron ore supply to Asia in the second quarter of 2026, market participants said. Meanwhile, higher energy prices resulting from the conflict have increased freight rates and raised operating costs at mines and steelworks. The Platts Iron Ore Index, or IODEX, rose 10% in March following the outbreak of the Middle East war, reaching $110/dry metric ton CFR China on March 17, the highest since July 2024. Platts is part of S&P Global Energy. Prices on a CFR China basis increased in part due to higher freight rates, as iron ore Capesize freight rates from Western Australia to Qingdao, China, rose from $10.20/metric ton at the end of February to $13.45/mt in mid-March, according to Platts data. Freight rates pared gains in the latter half of March, settling at $13.25/dmt by the end of April, Platts data show. China’s unofficial extension of import curbs to BHP’s Newman High Grade Fines in mid-March — alongside existing restrictions on Jimblebar Fines and Jinbao fines — also contributed to higher prices. However, market participants noted a significant shift April 14, when China relaxed seaborne import curbs. Curbs fallout After months of negotiations, BHP said April 22 that it had concluded iron ore sales contract discussions with China Mineral Resources Group, China’s state-run iron ore buyer. The differentials for BHP products traded in the spot seaborne market — including Mining Area C Fines and other restricted products — initially widened due to additional curbs, before narrowing as Chinese steelmakers avoided purchasing these products directly from the miner in the seaborne spot market. MACF’s discount to the 61% Fe index widened from $3.45/dmt at the start of 2026 to $5.55/dmt on March 24, then narrowed sharply to $1.39/dmt by April 24 after the curbs were relaxed, according to Platts data. NHGF traded at its widest discount of $5.30/dmt to the 61% Fe index on Jan. 20 and remained around $5.20/dmt on March 12, the day China’s extension of curbs was first reported, Platts data show. The next spot NHGF sale by BHP was not reported until April 15, when it traded at a $2/dmt discount. JMBF, the first product to be placed on China’s restricted list, recorded its first spot sale by the miner since November 2025 on April 16, trading at a $5.80/dmt discount to the 61% Fe index, according to Platts data. “There have been a few more diverted trades to ex-China markets such as Vietnam and India for NHGF and JMBF since the curbs, with pricing levels progressively worsening, signaling the effects of the advisory even beyond China,” said a Chinese trader source. Conversely, premiums for Rio Tinto’s Pilbara Blend Fines increased as its close alternatives were restricted from spot trading but dropped sharply when BHP’s spot supply resumed. PBF premiums over IODEX CFR China rose from $1.15/dmt at the start of 2026 t