Asian met coal market sees pricing support in Q2 from Middle East war in Commodity News 27/04/2026 This report is part of the S&P Global Energy’s Metals Trade Review series, where we dig through datasets and digest some of the key trends in iron ore, metallurgical coal, copper, alumina, cobalt, lithium, nickel and steel and scrap. We also explore what the next few months could bring, from supply and demand shifts to new arbitrages, and to quality spread fluctuations. The Asian seaborne metallurgical coal market is expected to see pricing support in the second quarter from the Middle East conflict due to supply chain disruptions, participants said. Met coal prices have been elevated since April on persisting concerns of a diesel supply shortage, which could impact mining operations, particularly in Australia. Higher freight costs have been the most direct impact of the war on met coal markets. The Platts Panamax freight rates from East Coast Australia to east coast India averaged $25.18/metric ton in March, up 50.2% from the February average of $16.76/mt and 73.2% from the March 2025 average of $14.54/mt. Platts is part of S&P Global Energy. The freight from East Coast Australia to Qingdao, China, averaged $22.38/mt in March, higher by 46.4% from the February average of $15.29/mt and by 70.8% from the March 2025 average of $13.10/mt, Platts data showed. Even with a fragile ceasefire, market participants saw it doing little to alleviate supply shocks and costs in the medium term, given the significant damage to energy supply infrastructure. These war-led challenges followed the first quarter’s wet weather and mining-related disruptions in Australia, with miners like GM3 calling for a force majeure on mining-related issues alongside various shipping delays from other premium coal suppliers. Platts Premium Low-Vol Hard Coking Coal prices rose in Q1, with the FOB Australia index touching an over-one-and-half-year high at $252.50/mt Feb. 4. The PLV HCC assessment ended Q1 at $236.80/mt FOB Australia March 31, up $18.80/mt from the start of the quarter. The Platts PLV HCC CFR China index also increased by $14.50/mt from the beginning of the quarter to $220/mt March 31. “We expect the Middle East conflict to keep metallurgical coal prices at higher levels in the short term,” S&P Global Energy CERA analysts said in a March 26 note, adding that elevated seaborne freight rates and coal’s role as an alternative to oil and LNG amid supply shortages were indirectly supporting met coal prices. India’s spot demand may shrink India was the most active spot buyer of met coal in Asia in 2025 and for Q1 2026, although at a slower pace. This came alongside a lull in the Chinese import market as buyers there relied mainly on domestic and Mongolian sources, while Southeast and Northeast Asian buyers entered the spot market only opportunistically. Coming into 2026, several Indian mills, which were previously dependent on the spot market for their premium coal requirements, were said to have entered into long-term contracts with Australian suppliers in the new Indian fiscal year starting April 1. At the same time, end-users with existing term contracts have also increased volumes bought on these terms. Market participants anticipated the trend to likely sap spot demand this year. “The newly-contracted term volumes should meet our projected demand,” an Indian steelmaker said. “But if spot prices are competitive enough, perhaps we might give that a thought too …