Tankers The US seizure of the VLCC Skipper off Venezuela last week has been met with a consensus from leading analysts that the action is unequivocally positive for the mainstream, compliant tanker market, despite escalating geopolitical tensions. The move is seen as the latest escalation against Venezuela’s oil trade, which relies heavily on a sanctioned shadow fleet to export crude, excluding Chevron’s licensed exports to the US). SEB views the increased pressure as “positive for the compliant tanker market.” The bank argues that any reduction in Venezuelan exports-which averaged roughly 630,000 barrels per day year-to-date-will be replaced by crude from compliant suppliers in the Americas or the Middle East, boosting demand for conventional tonnage. Poten analysts concur, noting that the seizure, paired with the recent US treasury sanctions targeting six more VLCCs, signals an intent to cripple the Maduro regime’s access to its key export mechanism. Poten states that as employment opportunities for the dark fleet diminish, mainstream tankers will benefit. Clarksons also sees a short-term boost. The firm predicts that disruption to Venezuelan loadings will drive Chinese buyers-who import most of the sanctioned crude-to seek additional volumes from non-sanctioned suppliers in the Middle East, directly increasing mainstream tanker demand. The market awaits to see how far the US will go, but the tightening noose on the shadow fleet suggests a period of elevated rates for conventional carriers. Dry Bulk The global dry bulk fleet sees strong vessel deliveries outpace demolition activity even as newbuilding appetite fades to multi-year lows. According to Ursa Shipbrokers, 2025 has already seen the delivery of 459 dry bulk carriers, adding 32.8m tonnes of deadweight to the fleet. With a further 58 ships scheduled before year-end, total additions for 2025 are expected to reach 517 vessels and 36.8m dwt. Demolitions, while higher year-on-year, remain modest by comparison. Between January and November, 76 bulkers were recycled, removing just 4.4m dwt. “This means net fleet growth remains firmly positive,” Ursa Shipbrokers noted, adding that demolitions are up 20.6% year-on-year by number of ships and 26.7% by deadweight, but still insufficient to offset deliveries. Recycling activity has been concentrated in panamaxes, handysizes and older handymaxes, with nearly 80% of scrapping taking place in the Indian subcontinent. The composition of deliveries highlights where fleet growth is most pronounced. Ultramaxes, kamsarmaxes and modern large handies dominate 2025 deliveries, with ultramaxes alone accounting for 181 vessels and 11.6m dwt. This trend is set to continue into 2026, when Ursa expects 576 bulk carriers to be delivered, adding a further 44.2m dwt, a 20% year-on-year increase in capacity. At the same time, ordering activity has slowed sharply. BIMCO data show bulker newbuilding contracting fell 54% year-on-year between January and November 2025 to just 25m dwt, the lowest level since 2020. “The dry bulk orderbook is now 4% smaller than a year ago, accounting for 11% of the dry bulk fleet,” said Filipe Gouveia, shipping analysis manager at BIMCO, citing a “cloudy market outlook”. Gouveia added that capesize fundamentals look strongest, while supramax and panamax segments face weaker demand and heavier delivery schedules. Together, the data suggest a fleet growing larger and more modern, but increasingly shaped by caution over what comes ne