The LR supply wave: can freight stay on its feet? in International Shipping News 18/02/2026 The LR story over the next few quarters is less about a single demand catalyst and more about how much supply quietly comes back into play. This piece unpacks the levers behind that shift: a heavy newbuild delivery schedule, the unwind of recent clean-to-dirty switching, and the potential for faster turnaround if East West routing normalises via Suez. We then weigh how much of that incoming tonnage can realistically be offset by removals in the ageing fleet, and where refinery dislocation may lengthen some voyages while leaving the broader balance still exposed. Clean fleet growth is accelerating LR deliveries were comfortably absorbed in 2025 due to two factors: the artificial removals by vessels moving into dirty trade and continued routing inefficiency via the Cape of Good Hope. As a result more than 50 LR deliveries did not translate into a persistent oversupply on the clean market. The 2026 setup is materially different. The delivery number is the highest on record and more importantly, it is landing into a market where the inefficiencies could fade. Since January, 13 LRs have delivered and most have gone straight into clean employment, adding prompt capacity. With around 75 LR deliveries pencilled in for 2026 and roughly 65 still to come, the clean LR pool is set to expand steadily through the year, keeping a persistent supply tailwind in the background even if near term availability still feels tight on specific stems. Clean-dirty switches In 2025, more than 50 LR newbuilds delivered, yet the clean market did not see the oversupply signal as from August onwards a meaningful cohort of LR2s shifted into dirty employment, effectively taking ships out of the clean trading pool and relieving supply pressure. The question for 2026 is whether that release valve can keep opening with another 65+ deliveries still to come. This looks unlikely as trading dirty is no longer looking as an attractive option for owners as in Q4 2025. Why the dirty option may look less compelling Aframax support has been closely tied to a tighter sanctions market and incremental tonnage migrating into dark fleet employment. While dark fleet availability remains constrained, the pace of vessels switching from mainstream trading into sanctioned trades has clearly slowed. On the demand side, the robust transatlantic crude programme provided a meaningful floor for Aframax earnings. With CPC barrels now returning, European refiners may have less need for replacement long haul Atlantic Basin voyages, which reduces one of the key supports for the segment. Venezuela to PADD3 remains a constructive flow for Aframax, but the latest trade deal also opens the door for incremental Venezuela to India liftings, which are structurally better suited to Suezmax and VLCC economics. As a result, a recovery in Venezuelan exports does not automatically translate into Aframax employment. If Aframax earnings soften while clean LR2 remains workable, the relative incentive to move to dirty employment diminishes, raising the risk of further capacity staying or even shifting back towards clean. When will LR owners go back via Suez? A near term return of tanker transits via Suez remains uncertain. It has been more than 100 days since the last reported Houthi attack, and Maersk has signalled a willingness to route some container services back through the Canal. Tanker owners, however, have not moved i