LNG crisis in Middle East to boost Shell, Exxon energy profits in General Energy News 07/03/2026 Escalating Middle East conflicts, including QatarEnergy’s halted LNG production and suspended Strait of Hormuz operations, have removed significant global natural gas supply, causing prices to jump over 40%. However, even in the chaos of geopolitical tensions and soaring prices, western companies are likely to come off as the ultimate winners. Major US and European energy companies, including Shell, TotalEnergies, ExxonMobil, and Cheniere, are poised to secure significant profits, even if Qatar quickly resumes gas shipments following the US and Israeli attacks on Iran that began on Saturday, according to a New York Times report. Western energy giants poised for profit These US and European firms are the most viable alternative suppliers for global customers—both countries and companies—that rely on Qatari gas for generating electricity or manufacturing industrial goods like chemicals and steel. This advantage stems from a decade of investment. Companies like Cheniere have developed eight US terminals to chill natural gas into a liquid for transport on ocean tankers. Large oil and gas companies, such as Shell, Total, and Exxon, purchase much of this liquefied gas (LNG) under contract and subsequently sell it to customers worldwide. The key Asian benchmark price for LNG has seen a sharp rise, increasing by approximately 91% since the close of last week, while the European benchmark price has climbed about 58%. Short-term windfall and market volatility Jason Feer, head of business intelligence at the global consulting and shipping brokerage firm Poten & Partners, described this as “a real windfall,” noting that parties involved “get the benefit of this big jump.” Western energy companies are currently selling LNG to Europe at a price that is approximately double their cost to acquire and deliver the fuel, Feer was quoted as saying in the NYT report. This represents a significant increase from just a week ago, when their revenue was only about 27%-28% higher than their costs. Still, despite a more than 52% surge at Europe’s benchmark Title Transfer Facility (TTF) on March 2, Rystad Energy expects the current supply shock to have a limited long-term impact on global gas and liquefied natural gas markets. Output decline scenarios “In a scenario where there is limited or no damage and hostilities subside quickly, leading to a 15-day production halt, we estimate a 4.3% decline in 2026 output, equivalent to around 3.3 million tonnes,” Jan-Eric Fahnrich, senior analyst, gas & LNG research, Rystad Energy, said in an emailed commentary. “A more prolonged disruption could result in 5.6 Mt of lost supply, while a full-scale interruption lasting four to five weeks before the Strait reopens to commercial traffic would translate into a loss of approximately 11.2 Mt for the full year 2026.” Qatar’s LNG exports are central to both its economy and global trade. Therefore, Rystad anticipates production restoration will take weeks, not months. QatarEnergy indefinitely stopped all LNG production, affecting its current liquefaction capacity of 77 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa). This halt followed a drone strike on its gas facilities in Ras Laffan on March 2, an incident that occurred while maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz was already stalled. Since the war between Russia and Ukraine broke out in 2022, the former has cut off much of the gas it piped to