Iran war scenarios: The oil price that breaks parts of the economy in Oil & Companies News 15/03/2026 Volatility in Brent crude oil prices has been extreme because of the uncertainty surrounding what happens next in the conflict between US-Israel and Iran. It’s important not to get too hung up on the daily fluctuations in oil prices because they don’t move the needle on our baseline forecast – the monthly and quarterly averages are more important. Nevertheless, the swings in Brent crude oil prices over the past several days are eye-catching and odds are volatility will remain because of the absence of a timeline for when the conflict will deescalate and when the Strait of Hormuz, which is effectively closed, will see traffic begin to recover. Using our Global Economic Model (GEM), we ran a simulation that assumes Brent crude oil averages around $140pb for two months. The results show: • If global oil prices averaged around $140 per barrel (pb) for two months – along with the knock-on effects of a significant tightening in financial market conditions, heightened supply-chain disruptions, and a continuing deterioration in the collective psyche – it would be enough to push parts of the global economy into a mild recession. • There are mild contractions in the Eurozone, the UK, and Japan, while the US nears a temporary standstill and layoffs push up the unemployment rate, leaving it close to a recession. World CPI inflation would spike, peaking at 5.8%. • We also considered a less severe alternative where oil prices average around $100pb for two months, which would shave a few 10ths of a percentage point off global GDP growth via higher inflation, but recessions would be avoided. Source: Oxford Economics 2026-03-15 hellenicshippingnews... window.___gcfg = {lang: 'en-US'}; (function(w, d, s) { function go(){ var js, fjs = d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0], load = function(url, id) { if (d.getElementById(id)) {return;} js = d.createElement(s); js.src = url; js.id = id; fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js, fjs); }; load('//connect.facebook.net/en/all.js#xfbml=1', 'fbjssdk'); load('https://apis.google.com/js/plusone.js', 'gplus1js'); load('//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js', 'tweetjs'); } if (w.addEventListener) { w.addEventListener("load", go, false); } else if (w.attachEvent) { w.attachEvent("onload",go); } }(window, document, 'script')); tweet Share