信德海事网-专业海事信息咨询服务平台 登录 | 注册 [ 设为首页 ] [ 加入收藏 ] 中文版 ENGLISH WeChat Mobile --> --> ENGLISH   >   MARKET --> Shipyard capacity surges but relocation will increasingly take centre stage 2026-01-12 09:14 By： MSI 分享： --> --> --> 评论 --> --> Strategic and economic shifts by South Korean builders are designed to counter China’s orderbook dominance, writes Stuart Nicoll, director, Maritime Strategies International Further upward revisions to MSI’s estimate of the global orderbook within its Q4 2025 update have led to an upward revision of newbuilding price forecasts to 2029. Overall, we now see a much shallower decline in prices at their low point, and a higher trough at close to $2,000/CGT. Charts 1 and 2 illustrate MSI’s Q4 2025 forecast for newbuilding market activity, showing the last decade and its forecast to 2029. The last five years have seen a sustained level of newbuilding activity, which has propelled the orderbook to an estimated 293 Mn GT, at the end of 2025. This is the third highest level in history, but falls short the peak seen during the superboom of the 2000s. Nevertheless, as Chart 2 highlights, the orders already booked promise a rapid increase in deliveries during the next five years, with shipyard capacity expanding rapidly. New and reborn shipyards are adding new capacity, while expansions and dramatic productivity gains are boosting effective capacity at existing yards, principally in China. Deliveries will exceed 80 Mn GT for three consecutive years and could peak nearly 50% above typical levels of the last decade. The expansions herald a new era in shipbuilding as geopolitical realities intersect with economic realities in Korea. Expectations of increased naval building by the US and persistently lower prices in China for high-quality tonnage have led to a dramatic rethink at leading yards. Most notably, HD KSOE is planning to build a new mega yard in India, a plan that would have been unthinkable until recently. In general, the