Period of elevated copper prices overextended: analysts in Commodity News 12/01/2026 Copper is taking analysts by surprise: as recently as LME Week in mid-October, they saw its price, then near $11,000/metric ton, as excessive. Since then, the LME copper benchmark has gained more than $2,410/mt, and market observers now insist that the period of elevated prices has been overextended. “Copper and really all metal prices are being driven by global uncertainty brought on by US Government actions [that] have caused a huge increase in copper flows to the US, not due to demand, but for inventory stocking,” Ken Hoffman, Global Commodity Strategist for Toronto-based Red Cloud Securities, told Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, referring to the implementation of 50% tariffs on US imports of semi-finished copper products, starting in August, and the announced intention to impose tariffs on unwrought copper imports beginning in 2027. COMEX inventories now stand at more than 503,000 mt, from less than 100,000 mt a year ago, according to Hoffman. He and other analysts also pointed to the impact of supply disruptions; in 2025, their number was higher than average, with some of the biggest mines experiencing production issues. The LME copper benchmark has been setting records since the end of October, when it surpassed its previous high of around $11,000/mt achieved in May 2024. Since then, prices have climbed rapidly, breaking $12,000/mt on Dec. 23, almost touching $13,000/mt on Jan. 5, and reaching $13,238/mt the following day. “We’re very much of the view that the copper price is unsustainable,” Natalie Scott-Gray, senior metals analyst at financial services company StoneX, told Platts. “It has jumped so quickly, running away from the realities of the impact of [US] tariffs, the macro environment, and even the fundamentals.” The price surge was fueled by concerns about material shortages outside the US and interest from speculative money; however, these drivers are losing momentum, while risks in the macroeconomic environment, which copper has been largely ignoring recently, persist. “Traditionally, when there is heightened geopolitical tension, such as the US’ military operation in Venezuela or the Russian war [in Ukraine], copper prices would come off because it creates a risk-off mode,” said Scott-Gray. Too much material for demand The copper market has been overreacting to one such risk, though, and remains focused on the outcome of June 30 — the deadline for the executive order on a 15% tariff on refined copper imports into the US. “The expectation of last year was that we were going to have them,” said Scott-Gray, adding that UNCOMTRADE data shows that 890,000 mt of copper was shipped to the US in the first seven months of 2025, as a result. However, the feedback that the Donald Trump administration received from all major producers, combined with the excessive copper inventory in the US, argues against imposing tariffs. “It’s difficult to say when exactly copper prices will come off, but we don’t see that they are going to stay at this level for a number of reasons,” she said. The arbitrage between COMEX and LME prices no longer supports the pull of new copper material to the US, and the speculative positions appear overextended, she said. “If we look at LME positioning, the net long is in its 80th percentile to the upside, so approaching record levels. When we have very stretched net positions, the price and momentum in the market can shift