Europe’s transport fuels supply is resilient but vulnerable in Oil & Companies News 11/06/2026 The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has dealt a direct blow to Europe’s transport fuels supply. Between January 2023 and February 2026, 30% of Europe’s seaborne imports of jet fuel and diesel from external regions came from the Middle East Gulf, as did 10% of its seaborne crude and condensate imports. Despite this, Europe has managed to keep its transport fuels supply broadly stable, drawing on a combination of import diversification, stronger domestic refining, stock draws and demand adjustment. Middle distillates imports: replacing lost Middle East barrels Europe is broadly self-sufficient in gasoline, typically exporting surpluses rather than importing, so the Middle East supply shock has fallen most directly on middle distillates. In May 2026, Europe seaborne imports of middle distillates from the MEG collapsed to just 40kbd, the lowest volume in Vortexa’s 10-year dataset and a 540kbd decline y-o-y. West Africa has emerged as a notable new supplier, with the 28-day moving average of its middle distillates exports to Europe reaching a record high as of June 6, up nearly two-fold y-o-y at around 125kbd. Jet fuel has accounted for over 90% of West Africa’s middle distillates exports to Europe since April, sourced entirely from the Dangote Refinery in Nigeria. Flows from the US have also stepped up sharply: PADD 3 middle distillates exports to Europe were at seasonal highs in both April (up 60% y-o-y) and May (up 70% y-o-y), while US Atlantic Coast middle distillates exports to Europe hit a dataset high of nearly 110kbd in April, led by diesel. However, these flows have not fully offset the loss of Middle East supply: Europe’s seaborne imports from external regions remain down 20% y-o-y in May for diesel and down 50% y-o-y for jet/kero. Strong European refining The shortfall in imported refined products has been partly offset by stronger European refining, which has be